Bitcoin Near $115.7K May Be Poised for Further Gains as 76% of Supply Is Held Long-Term and NUPL Signals Optimism

• 76% of Bitcoin supply is held by long-term holders, creating a strong base

• NUPL = 0.54, indicating an optimism phase with room to expand

• Derivatives open interest at $79.8B and $49M in short liquidations highlight rising speculative positioning

Meta description: Bitcoin long-term holders control 76% of supply; NUPL at 0.54 and $79.8B OI suggest room to run — read key takeaways and on-chain analysis now.

Bitcoin trades above $115.7K as long-term holders secure 76% of supply, NUPL signals optimism, and derivatives open interest reaches $79.8B.

• Bitcoin’s long-term holders now control 76% of supply, forming one of the strongest bases observed in recent market cycles.
• NUPL stands at 0.54, positioning Bitcoin in the optimism phase with profit-taking low, suggesting the market still has room to expand.
• Derivatives open interest climbs to $79.8B while short liquidations dominate, indicating traders continue resisting the upside despite rising momentum.

Bitcoin has crossed $115,700, but the recent move is not only about price. Market data suggests stronger foundations are forming beneath the surface.

What does 76% supply held by long-term holders mean for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin long-term holders controlling 76% of supply signals a consolidation of coins with a lower likelihood of immediate sell pressure. This high concentration among holders who rarely move coins tends to create scarcity dynamics that can support price appreciation over time.

How does NUPL at 0.54 affect market outlook?

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) at 0.54 places Bitcoin in the optimism phase, where many holders are profitable but not yet euphoric. Historically, this phase allows sustained trend continuation because profit-taking is moderate and conviction remains strong.

Despite higher price levels, Bitcoin’s ownership structure reflects wide distribution. The top 100 holders control only 14.9% of total supply, suggesting the network remains broadly held rather than dominated by a small number of wallets.

Why is on-chain activity cooling ahead of potential expansion?

On-chain participation has softened: active addresses are down 6% and adjusted volume fell 26% to $17.3B. These declines are consistent with consolidation, which often precedes stronger directional moves because short-term volatility settles and longer-term trends reassert.

Cooling metrics often indicate distribution of supply tightening. With long-term holders reducing sell-side pressure, the reduction in active addresses appears to reflect patience rather than capitulation.

How is the derivatives market shaping the near-term Bitcoin outlook?

Open interest across Bitcoin derivatives rose to $79.8B, showing renewed speculative participation. Liquidation data shows $49M in short liquidations versus $3M in long liquidations, implying shorts have been forced off and momentum favors bullish continuation.

Combined, these signals — locked supply, restrained profit-taking (NUPL 0.54), and rising derivatives participation — point to a market where structural support is building beneath price action.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is NUPL and why does it matter?

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) measures aggregate market profit or loss. A reading of 0.54 indicates many holders are profitable but not euphoric, often signalling room for continued gains without widespread profit-taking pressure.

How do long-term holders influence Bitcoin price stability?

Long-term holders reduce circulating supply available for quick selling. When a larger percentage of supply becomes illiquid, price volatility can decline and upward trends can sustain as demand meets a tighter supply base.

When should traders watch derivatives open interest?

Rising open interest signals growing leverage and conviction. Watch for disproportionate short liquidations, which can accelerate upward moves if short positions are forced to cover.

Key Takeaways

• Supply locked: 76% of supply held by long-term holders, reducing immediate sell pressure.
• Healthy sentiment: NUPL at 0.54 points to optimism without euphoria.
• Rising participation: $79.8B derivatives open interest and dominant short liquidations suggest momentum could continue.

Conclusion

The confluence of a 76% long-term holder base, NUPL at 0.54, and elevated derivatives open interest paints a picture of strengthening fundamentals beneath Bitcoin price action. Market data points to constructive conditions for the next phase of growth — monitor on-chain metrics and derivatives flows for confirmation.

By COINOTAG — Published: September 13, 2025 · Updated: September 13, 2025