- Evaluation of Bitcoin’s on-chain activity showed that the market is in an indecisive state at the moment.
- CryptoQuant analyst evaluated the behavior patterns of short and medium-term BTC holders, as well as the exchange activities of BTC whales and small-scale investors.
- Neither short-term nor medium-term holders were making profits. This neutral signal could indicate that the market is ready for an exit in either direction.
Bitcoin price started trading above $29,800 level, but some metrics indicate continued indecision.
Bitcoin Market Continues to Remain Indecisive
Evaluation of Bitcoin’s on-chain activity showed that the market is in an indecisive state at the moment. There was no significant sell signal based on observed fundamental on-chain metrics. However, there was also no significant buy-side signal. This suggests that the market is likely to stay within a certain range for now.
CryptoQuant analyst evaluated the behavior patterns of short and medium-term BTC holders, as well as the exchange activities of BTC whales and small-scale investors, and found that the overall market was hesitant to make significant transactions.
The analyst examined the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data for short-term holders (STH-NUPL) and medium-term holders (MTH-NUPL) of BTC. Both were positioned at zero.
The STH-NUPL metric measures the unrealized profit/loss of short-term holders who hold their BTC for less than 12 months. On the other hand, MTH-NUPL tracks the unrealized profit/loss of medium-term holders who hold their coins for six months to two years.
Although these metrics are high and positive (above zero), they indicate that investors in both groups are bullish and making profits. Conversely, low and negative values for both metrics indicate bearish sentiment, where investors are recording losses.
By staying at zero at the moment, neither short-term nor medium-term holders were making profits. This neutral signal could indicate that the market is ready for an exit in either direction.
Signals Remain Neutral: No Major Sell-offs
The analyst also examined the inflow of UTXOs to exchanges based on Bitcoin’s 7-day moving average. This metric measures the amount of crypto assets deposited into exchanges from unspent transaction outputs. The analyst stated:
“The data, adjusted with a 7-day average, shows limited activity of large ownership groups (100-10k) sending money to exchanges. The most effective band since May 25 has been the cooling 10-100 range. Major cohorts have been largely stable with limited increases.”
This indicates limited activity of large ownership groups in sending coins. This also indicates a neutral signal and no significant selling pressure from these groups. The analyst further examined the dominance of these investor groups in terms of UTXO percentage and stated:
“In the bear market after ATH, high ratios (>= 40%) of 100 – 10K – >10K ownership groups were often associated with significant volatility and frequently led to sharp declines.”
However, since the beginning of the year, UTXO dominance has decreased. This indicates that these ownership groups are holding onto their coins and distributing them in a limited manner to support the “limited coin distribution for recovery” as mentioned by Dang.
