Bitcoin Price Model Forecasts Significant Gains by 2025

A unique Bitcoin price model forecasts a peak between $220,000 and $330,000 before the end of 2025, drawing considerable attention from analysts and investors alike.

Bitcoin continues to exhibit strong cyclical volatility, contrasting the belief that its price swings are softening. Notably, more than $4 billion in BTC has been moved by long-term holders, signaling potential price corrections ahead.

In a revealing statement, Bitcoin researcher Sminston With asserts that BTC could gain 100% to 200% from current levels, suggesting a cycle peak between these impressive figures.

Bitcoin’s Price Projection Based on Historical Trends

Analysis from researcher Sminston With indicates that a BTC price peak remains between 100% to 200% away from current valuations. In a recent update on X, With revealed a Bitcoin price chart leveraging a 365-day simple moving average (SMA) aligned with a power law model (R²=0.96).

This model highlights that Bitcoin’s price maintains a predictable, non-random trajectory, diverging from the exponential growth patterns often applied to traditional stocks and equities.

The chart suggests Bitcoin’s 365-day SMA tends to peak 2 to 3 times above the power law trendline during market cycles. With Bitcoin currently valued at approximately $110,000 as of May 27, this model hints at a prospective cycle high between $220,000 and $330,000. Historically, Bitcoin has often overshot this trendline during bull markets, projecting optimism for investors.

Understanding Recent Market Movements and Long-Term Holder Behavior

A secondary graph illustrated in With’s post underscores that Bitcoin has shown consistent cyclical volatility, with no evidence of decaying price swings. This contradicts the widespread notion that Bitcoin’s price movements are becoming less severe over time, reasserting its position as a highly volatile asset with the potential for drastic price fluctuations.

In Q3 of 2024, With accurately predicted a transition to six-figure pricing for Bitcoin by January 2025 while it was trading near $60,000. His analysis considered the decaying peak phenomenon, where returns diminish as the asset gains mainstream adoption, leading to sharp declines in valuation during profit-taking phases.

Market Dynamics: Significant Spending by Long-Term Holders

The recent data shows that long-term holders (LTHs) have transacted more than $4.02 billion in BTC—the most substantial movement from the 1-to-5-year cohorts since February 2025, according to Glassnode. The majority of this surge was driven by the 3-to-5-year holders, contributing around $2.16 billion to the total.

This activity suggests a pattern where LTH spending often coincides with price peaks, underscoring the ongoing struggle for BTC to maintain levels above $110,000. Should this transaction trend align with an uptick in BTC exchange reserves, significant price movements could follow.

Technical Analysis and Future Outlook

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has been establishing higher highs and lows since its recent nadir at $74,500. Following each peak, Bitcoin typically enters a sideways range before the next breakout.

Presently, the ongoing correction reflects this historical pattern, with recent lows observed at approximately $107,300. However, analysts caution that deeper corrections may be imminent for Bitcoin.

Anonymous trader TXMC suggested that Bitcoin could be on the verge of concluding a streak of seven to eight consecutive green weeks, the longest such sequence since 2013. In his words:

“BTC’s seven to eight consecutive green weeks are the longest streaks Bitcoin has managed since 2013, before it has pulled back or consolidated. Last week was #7.”

Conclusion

In summary, Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains a focal point of discussion among investors and analysts due to its potential for significant gains by the end of 2025. While the cyclical volatility and recent spending patterns of long-term holders present both risks and opportunities, the underlying data emphasizes the need for cautious optimism. As the market continues to evolve, investors should stay informed and prepared for potential price movements in the coming months.