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Bitcoin’s price action is approaching a critical support zone identified by Glassnode, highlighting key levels between $95,500 and $97,000 that could influence its next major move.
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This supply cluster lies just below the short-term holder cost basis at $98,000, creating a layered support structure that may determine whether bullish momentum continues or bearish pressure intensifies.
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According to Glassnode, “The concentration of Bitcoin supply in this range represents a pivotal battleground where holder conviction will be tested, impacting future price trajectories.”
Glassnode highlights Bitcoin’s critical support between $95.5K-$97K below the $98K short-term holder cost basis, signaling key bullish or bearish price implications.
Glassnode Identifies Crucial Bitcoin Support Zone Between $95,500 and $97,000
Recent on-chain analysis from Glassnode reveals a significant cluster of Bitcoin supply concentrated between $95,500 and $97,000. This zone represents a historical accumulation area where many holders acquired their BTC, making it a natural support level. When the price revisits such levels, it tests the resolve of these holders—whether they choose to sell, hold, or accumulate more. This dynamic often results in increased buying pressure, potentially stabilizing the price and preventing sharp declines. Understanding this supply cluster is essential for traders and investors aiming to anticipate Bitcoin’s near-term price behavior.
The Role of the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis in Bitcoin Price Dynamics
The short-term holder (STH) cost basis, currently around $98,000, is a critical on-chain metric representing the average price at which Bitcoin was last acquired by holders with less than approximately 155 days of ownership. This cost basis acts as a psychological and technical benchmark. When Bitcoin trades above this level, short-term holders are generally profitable, which can reduce selling pressure and encourage further buying. Conversely, trading below this cost basis may induce selling from holders facing unrealized losses, increasing downside risk. The proximity of the large supply cluster just below this cost basis creates a layered support structure that market participants closely monitor.
Potential Market Scenarios Based on Key On-Chain Levels
Glassnode’s analysis outlines two primary scenarios depending on Bitcoin’s interaction with these critical levels:
- Sustained Trading Above $97,000 and $98,000: Maintaining price levels above the supply cluster and the STH cost basis would signal strong holder conviction and renewed bullish momentum. This scenario could attract additional buyers, supporting a continuation of the upward trend.
- Break Below $95,500: A decisive drop below the supply cluster’s lower bound may indicate weakening support and increased selling pressure. This could trigger a cascade of liquidations and capitulation among short-term holders, potentially accelerating a bearish phase.
Why On-Chain Data Complements Traditional Technical Analysis
On-chain analysis, such as that provided by Glassnode, offers a fundamental perspective by examining blockchain data directly, including coin movement and holder behavior. This approach complements traditional technical analysis, which focuses on price charts and volume. By integrating on-chain metrics like supply clusters and holder cost bases, traders gain deeper insights into market structure and potential turning points. This holistic view enhances decision-making and risk management in the volatile crypto market.
Considerations and Strategic Insights for Market Participants
While the identified support zone and cost basis levels provide valuable guidance, it is important to consider broader market factors such as macroeconomic trends, regulatory developments, and institutional activity, which can override on-chain signals. Traders should:
- Closely monitor price action within the $95,500 to $97,000 range for signs of buying strength or breakdowns.
- Watch for sustained closes above $98,000 to confirm bullish momentum and potential trend continuation.
- Use on-chain data alongside technical indicators and fundamental news to form a comprehensive market view.
Conclusion
Glassnode’s latest on-chain insights underscore a critical juncture for Bitcoin, with a substantial supply cluster between $95,500 and $97,000 positioned just below the short-term holder cost basis at $98,000. This layered support structure could dictate whether Bitcoin sustains its bullish trajectory or faces increased selling pressure. Market participants are advised to integrate these data-driven insights with broader analysis frameworks to navigate Bitcoin’s evolving price landscape effectively.
