Bitcoin Pullback May Fit Bull Market Norms as Long-Term Holder Selling Tracks Historical Cycles

• Correction size (~-12%) aligns with bull-market norms and is not a structural break.

• Long-Term Holder selling rose but stayed below prior cycle peaks, indicating measured profit-taking.

• Market metrics (derivatives leverage, on-chain spending) show deleveraging and balanced sentiment.

Bitcoin correction: recent ~-12% pullback fits bull-market norms; read why holders selling and on-chain data point to a healthy reset — learn the outlook.

Bitcoin correction holds within bull market norms as long-term holders manage selling in cycles while prices recover and push higher.

• Bitcoin’s correction of -12% stays within healthy bull market ranges, showing no sign of breaking historical cycle norms.
• Long-Term Holder selling patterns remain consistent, with activity rising and falling in line with Bitcoin’s major price swings.
• Market data shows corrections clear excess leverage, keep sentiment balanced, and allow Bitcoin to maintain its bullish structure.

Bitcoin’s recent pullback has drawn attention as traders question whether the correction signals deeper weakness. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost_Coc on X, “Bitcoin hasn’t corrected more deeply than -28% during the current bull market… This current move is therefore not unusual and could continue without breaking the historical pattern.” The statement comes at a crucial time since Bitcoin has retraced about -12% from its last all-time high near $123,000.

Source: CryptoQuant

The correction aligns with historical patterns observed throughout this cycle. Since March 2024, the steepest drawdown reached -28%. On average, pullbacks have stayed between -20% and -25%.

Hence, the current retracement fits into the expected range of a normal bull market reset. These corrections often cool overheated sentiment and reduce leverage excesses across derivatives markets, supporting a healthier advance afterward.

What is the Bitcoin correction and is it normal?

Bitcoin correction refers to a short-term price retracement during an overall bull market. The recent ~-12% decline is within historical bull-cycle ranges and primarily represents deleveraging rather than a structural trend reversal.

How are long-term holders responding?

On-chain metrics show Long-Term Holder (LTH) spending increased but remains below the October–November 2024 peak. Glassnode data indicates LTH selling accelerated on a 14-day SMA yet did not reach previous cycle highs, suggesting measured profit-taking rather than panic liquidation.

Source: Glassnode

Why do spending volumes mirror price cycles?

Spending volumes track profit-taking phases: November 2024 saw nearly 45,000 BTC sold by Long-Term Holders as prices climbed toward $100,000. In early 2025, spending dropped while prices eased from $100,000 to $80,000. Periods of rising prices later in 2025 correlated with renewed LTH activity near higher price points.

Between May and July 2025, LTH selling was limited (10,000–15,000 BTC), coinciding with price gains above $90,000. Activity resumed in August–September 2025 as Bitcoin traded above $110,000 and long-term holders sold nearly 24,000 BTC, with short-term holders adding pressure.

When should traders view corrections as healthy?

View corrections as healthy when they: 1) align with historical cycle ranges, 2) coincide with reductions in derivatives leverage, and 3) show measured on-chain selling from long-term holders. Current indicators meet these conditions and support the view of a normal bull-market reset.

Frequently Asked Questions

How deep is a typical bull-market correction for Bitcoin?

Typical bull-market corrections for Bitcoin often fall between -20% and -25%, with the current cycle’s steepest drawdown near -28% since March 2024. The recent ~-12% pullback is therefore within expectations.

Are long-term holders selling aggressively now?

Long-term holders have increased selling but remain below prior peaks. Data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant shows measured LTH profit-taking rather than broad-scale liquidation.

Key Takeaways

• Correction size is normal: The ~-12% retracement fits bull-market patterns and historical cycle norms.
• Long-term holder behavior: LTH selling increased but stayed below previous highs, indicating measured profit-taking.
• Market health signals: Deleveraging and balanced sentiment point to a sustainable bullish structure; monitor leverage and on-chain flows.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin correction is consistent with prior bull-market retracements, supported by on-chain evidence from CryptoQuant and Glassnode and statements from market analysts. Long-Term Holder activity reflects normal profit-taking, not systemic weakness. Readers should track leverage indicators and holder spending for the next directional clues. For continuous coverage, consult COINOTAG updates.