Bitcoin Reclaims $77K as Realized Cap Stabilizes and RHODL Ratio Hits Cycle Extreme

Bitcoin News

On-chain data suggests Bitcoin's deepest correction since the October all-time high may have already bottomed near the February dip toward $60,000. The Realized Cap metric, which tracks the aggregate cost basis of every coin based on its last on-chain movement, peaked close to $1.12 trillion before sliding to roughly $1.08 trillion as Bitcoin shed more than 50% from its record. That drawdown represents one of the largest wealth resets on record, yet the metric has now begun to stabilize and form a base — a pattern that closely mirrors the floors seen during the 2022 bear market trough.

A second long-term holder signal is flashing at a multi-cycle extreme. The RHODL ratio, which weighs wealth held by coins aged six months to two years against newer one-day-to-three-month positions, has climbed above 5, marking only the third time it has reached that level. The previous two prints landed at the cycle bottoms of 2015 and 2022. Long-term holders have absorbed more than 400,000 BTC since February, reinforcing the view that conviction money is accumulating into weakness while shorter-term speculators rotate out — a classic distribution pattern observed near major lows.

Perpetual futures funding rates have logged one of their longest stretches in deeply negative territory between February and May, an unusual structural condition that historically aligns with capitulation. Sustained negative funding implies traders are paying to hold short exposure, a setup typically associated with overcrowded bearish positioning and exhausted sell pressure. Comparable funding profiles emerged during the Silicon Valley Bank stress event in March 2023, the yen carry unwind of August 2024, and the tariff-driven April 2025 selloff — each of which ultimately marked durable Bitcoin lows before strong recoveries. The current reading suggests similar dynamics are at play.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $77,000 handle on Wednesday, lifting the broader market and driving select altcoins including Dash and XDC higher by double digits over the past 24 hours. Analysts framed the rebound as the convergence of regulatory tailwinds and macro caution, with short-term flows still pressured by spot ETF outflows. The 50-day moving average has been reinforcing support near $76,000, while the descending 200-day line tightens the corridor for a directional resolution within days. Whether the bounce becomes a durable trend reversal hinges on a calmer Treasury market and a renewed institutional bid through spot products.

Policy developments added a constructive overlay to sentiment after President Donald Trump directed federal agencies and the Federal Reserve to review payment-system access for fintech and digital asset firms. Industry observers characterized the order as supportive of long-term institutional access, joining a broader narrative around reserve-asset positioning, clearer regulatory perimeters, and integration of crypto rails into mainstream finance. While the immediate price impact remained modest, the directive reinforces the structural argument that policy shifts in Washington increasingly favor crypto businesses seeking banking and settlement rails that were previously constrained or denied outright.

Derivatives data, however, hints that traders are trimming risk rather than chasing the rebound. Aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest slipped to 744,000 BTC even as price rose, with USD- and USDT-denominated open interest on major exchanges falling to 257,000 BTC. Twenty-four-hour futures volume contracted 29% to $142.76 billion, and liquidations dropped 47% to $153 million as positioning thinned out. Implied volatility for both Bitcoin and ether is hovering near 2026 lows, prompting options desks to flag long straddles as an attractive setup for traders bracing for an outsized directional move in either direction.

Spot trades at $77,468, up roughly 0.9% over the past 24 hours, with $76,801 as immediate support backed by deeper buy interest at $75,080 and $72,673. Resistance sits at $78,455, then $80,476, with $82,912 capping the broader range. RSI at 47 sits in neutral terrain, while the bearish MACD signal and sideways trend argue for caution. A clean reclaim of $78,455 on rising volume would open the path toward $80,476; a daily close beneath $76,801 would invalidate the bottoming thesis and re-expose the lower supports near $72,673.