Bitcoin Rejected at 200-Day SMA as SpaceX Reveals 18,712 BTC, Nakamoto Plots 1-for-40 Split

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin stalled near $77,500 after its recovery from February lows ran into stiff resistance at the 200-day simple moving average around $82,000. The setup echoes the 2022 cycle, when a 43% relief bounce failed at the same long-term trend line before the broader downtrend resumed. On-chain analytics indicate the Bull Score Index has collapsed from 40 to 20, a reading flagged as extremely bearish and last seen when Bitcoin traded between $60,000 and $66,000 during the February-March stretch. Leveraged futures buying, spot accumulation, and U.S. ETF inflows — the three engines of the April rally — have all weakened simultaneously.

SpaceX disclosed a far larger Bitcoin position than market trackers had previously estimated. In its S-1 registration statement tied to a June 12 public listing, Elon Musk's aerospace firm reported holding 18,712 BTC worth roughly $1.45 billion, acquired at an average cost basis of $35,320 per coin. The figure dwarfs the 8,285 BTC that public on-chain trackers had attributed to the company and now ranks SpaceX as the seventh-largest corporate Bitcoin holder. The IPO is targeting a $1.75-$2 trillion valuation with up to $75 billion in proceeds, effectively turning SpaceX equity into a hybrid Bitcoin, AI, and aerospace exposure vehicle.

Bitcoin treasury firm Nakamoto confirmed a 1-for-40 reverse stock split, effective Friday, May 22, after the equity collapsed more than 99.5% from its 52-week high of $34.77. Shares closed Wednesday near $0.158 — well below the $1.00 minimum bid threshold required to remain Nasdaq-listed. The split compresses outstanding shares from 696.1 million to roughly 17.4 million. Nakamoto holds more than 5,000 BTC valued above $388 million but has been a net seller of its treasury, offloading roughly $22 million in BTC during Q1 after a $20 million sale the prior quarter, posting a $239 million quarterly loss tied largely to Bitcoin's drawdown.

The exchange-based Coinbase Premium Index dropped to -0.087 on May 19, its weakest print since March 31, signaling Bitcoin trading at a discount to Binance and softer U.S. spot demand. Holders cashed in approximately $1.14 billion in realized profits as price tagged $82,000 earlier in May, with unrealized profit margins climbing to 17.7% — the highest reading since June 2025. Yet the 14-day moving average of the premium has held above February lows, mirroring the 2025 setup that preceded Bitcoin's run toward $110,000. Base network revenue near $972,000 on May 19 underscores resilient ecosystem activity.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have flipped decisively negative, with U.S. products bleeding roughly $979.7 million in the week ended May 19 on top of nearly $1 billion of outflows the prior week. The reversal ends a six-week inflow streak that helped power the April-May rally toward the 200-day average. The Coinbase premium has stayed negative through both the rally and subsequent correction, indicating U.S. investors are no longer paying up for exposure relative to offshore venues. International demand looks equally muted: Korea's kimchi premium has slipped below zero, while Hong Kong's three spot Bitcoin ETFs have rarely cleared a few million dollars in combined daily turnover this month.

If the correction deepens, the traders' on-chain realized price near $70,000 emerges as the next major support zone — a level that capped previous rallies in October 2024 and acted as a floor during the early 2025 retracement. The realized price reflects the average acquisition cost of coins last moved on-chain, making it a structurally significant accumulation band. A clean breakdown below this threshold would imply the average holder is underwater, a condition historically associated with capitulation and the dividing line between a corrective phase and a confirmed bear market. Capital reallocation between corporate treasuries, ETFs, and offshore venues remains the primary swing factor.

Bitcoin trades at $77,867 with a 0.94% daily gain, leaving market structure firmly sideways. The 14-period RSI at 49.84 sits squarely in neutral territory with no momentum bias, while the MACD retains a bearish posture, signaling continued downside pressure on the lower time frames. Immediate support sits at $77,991, with deeper bids stacked at $76,163 and $74,281. Reclaiming $78,471 reopens the path toward $80,428 and the pivotal $82,785 resistance — a zone overlapping the 200-day SMA. A daily close above $82,785 would invalidate the bearish thesis, while a breakdown below $74,281 likely triggers a retest of the $70,000 realized-price floor.