- Bitcoin faces a major correction phase in 2024, dropping approximately 13.5% from its all-time high.
- Historical patterns and overbought conditions suggest a possible 35% price crash to around $40,000.
- “Bitcoin is positioned within a ‘Danger Zone,'” says Analysts, hinting at significant retracements.
With Bitcoin currently undergoing its first major correction of 2024, investors and analysts alike are closely watching for signs of potential price crashes, drawing parallels with previous market cycles.
Examining Bitcoin’s Correction Trajectory
After a strong rally, Bitcoin’s price has seen a 13.5% drop from its peak, signaling the start of a correction phase that could align with historical downturns of 20-40%. This pattern suggests that Bitcoin could be on the brink of another significant price adjustment, reminiscent of previous bull market corrections.
Overbought Conditions Signal Potential Downturn
Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching overbought territory at approximately 77 indicates a possible forthcoming price correction. This is supported by historical data where RSI levels above 70 often precede significant price drops towards the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA).
2020-2021 Fractal Predicts Price Crash
Analyses of Bitcoin’s price movement and RSI levels draw parallels to the 2020-2021 bull run, predicting a similar downturn. Should Bitcoin follow this fractal, its price could target the ascending trendline resistance around $84,000 before potentially retracting to its 50-week EMA near $40,000, marking a 35% drop by mid-2024.
NUPL Data Suggests Rising Profit-Taking Sentiment
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, indicating a profit-taking sentiment at a 0.64 reading, further supports the likelihood of an upcoming price correction. Such levels have historically led to increased selling pressure and subsequent sharp price declines in Bitcoin’s market.
Analysts’ Perspectives on Bitcoin’s Price Future
Despite the ominous signs, analysts’ opinions vary. Rekt Capital identifies a “Danger Zone” suggesting a potential drop to the $40,000-42,000 range before April’s halving event. Conversely, trader Aksel Kibar remains relatively bullish, anticipating a stabilization around $57,500.
Conclusion
As Bitcoin navigates through its 2024 correction phase, historical data, overbought conditions, and NUPL metrics provide a comprehensive insight into its potential price trajectory. While the outlook remains mixed among analysts, the coming months will be crucial for investors to monitor as the cryptocurrency approaches its next halving event.
