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Bitcoin is gearing up for a crucial $11.8 billion options expiry that could significantly impact its price trajectory as the year closes.
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With a noticeable bullish sentiment and a notable rise in call options, the dynamics of Bitcoin’s market are becoming increasingly aggressive as December approaches.
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“Bulls are incentivized to push Bitcoin as high as they can before the options expiry, aiming for substantial gains,” explained an analyst from COINOTAG.
The upcoming $11.8 billion Bitcoin options expiry on Dec. 27 is poised to influence market dynamics, with bullish trends leaning toward price surges above $100,000.
December Bitcoin Options Expiry: A Potential Catalyst for Price Movements
The December 27 options expiry is critical for Bitcoin (BTC), primarily because it could herald a surge in trading activity. As of now, nearly $7.9 billion in call options overshadow the $3.92 billion in put options. This is significant, considering Bitcoin’s impressive 29% increase since October, leaving many put options effectively worthless and indicating strong bullish sentiment.
Market Dynamics: Understanding the Call-Put Ratio
The current imbalance between call and put options signals a robust market sentiment among investors. With options market leader Deribit controlling 74% market share, traders are keenly positioned to influence the spot price. As traders navigate their strategies leading up to the expiry, the behavior of both bulls and bears will be critical in determining Bitcoin’s price action.
Potential Price Scenarios as December Expiry Approaches
As the expiry date approaches, five potential price scenarios could bring significant profits or losses for Bitcoin traders. Each range showcases the net results favoring call instruments:
- Between $72,000 and $75,000: $1.4 billion in calls vs. $470 million in puts favors calls by $930 million.
- Between $75,000 and $80,000: $1.85 billion in calls vs. $270 million in puts favors calls by $1.58 billion.
- Between $80,000 and $85,000: $2.74 billion in calls vs. $130 million in puts favors calls by $2.61 billion.
- Between $85,000 and $90,000: $3.38 billion in calls vs. $96 million in puts favors calls by $3.28 billion.
- Between $90,000 and $100,000: $4.52 billion in calls vs. $74 million in puts favors calls by $4.45 billion.
Bears’ Strategy: Containing Bitcoin’s Price
To minimize losses leading to the year-end expiry, bearish investors aim to keep Bitcoin’s price below $75,000. In contrast, bulls have their sights set on escalating Bitcoin past $90,500 to maximize profits before the expiry occurs. The prevailing sentiment suggests that the current options market data reflects a bullish outlook for Bitcoin heading into 2026.
Conclusion
The upcoming $11.8 billion options expiry on December 27 will likely be a pivotal moment for Bitcoin. With the current market dynamics highlighting a bullish leaning, investors should closely watch how the price trends unfold in the days leading up to this significant event. The interactions between bulls and bears could dictate Bitcoin’s immediate future, possibly paving the way for a further breakout beyond the challenging $100,000 mark.
