Bitcoin’s October 2025 Decline: November Rally Potential on Horizon

• Retail participation declined sharply, with active addresses dropping 26.1% to 872,000 by late October.

• Network metrics like transaction fees fell from $8.44 to $0.56, signaling lower user engagement.

• Macro factors, including fading Fed cut expectations and U.S. equity outperformance, added downward pressure on BTC price.

Bitcoin’s October 2025 slump: Explore why BTC fell short, retail fear metrics, and November rally potential. Stay informed on crypto trends for smarter investing decisions.

What Happened to Bitcoin in October 2025?

Bitcoin in October 2025 saw a notable decline, dropping from approximately $118,000 to near $110,000 by month-end. This correction was driven by profit-taking mid-month, evidenced by red candles and volume surges, alongside technical indicators like RSI dipping below neutral and trading under key exponential moving averages. At the time of this report, these signals pointed to market exhaustion amid broader uncertainties.

Why Did Macroeconomic Pressures Impact Bitcoin’s Performance?

Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December softened, eroding some market support. U.S. stock markets outperformed cryptocurrencies during this period, while ongoing restrictions on crypto in China persisted. Additionally, concerns regarding data analytics and technology firms in U.S. policy discussions contributed to the cautious sentiment. Data from TradingView highlighted this price action, showing consistent downward momentum.

Source: TradingView

Despite these challenges, historical patterns offer some optimism for the coming month. Analysis from CoinGlass reveals that November has delivered a median return of 8.81% for Bitcoin since 2013, including double-digit gains in key years like 2020, 2021, and 2023. Several emerging factors could support a reversal.

Source: CoinGlass

Geopolitical tensions between U.S. leadership under President Donald Trump and Chinese officials have shown signs of easing, which may alleviate some global uncertainties. CME FedWatch data points to a probability exceeding 60% for a December rate cut, potentially enhancing overall investor confidence. Furthermore, the conclusion of quantitative tightening on December 1 could inject additional liquidity into financial markets. Rounding out the positives, anticipation surrounds possible approvals for innovative exchange-traded funds, fostering broader enthusiasm in the sector.

Source: CME FedWatch

How Did Retail Sentiment Affect Bitcoin in October 2025?

Open interest in Bitcoin futures rose by nearly 10% over seven days, increasing from $7.95 billion to $8.65 billion as prices hovered around $110,000. However, this uptick coincided with a sharp decline in cumulative volume delta, suggesting that new short positions outnumbered long ones. Retail investors appeared positioned for further downside, reflecting prevailing fear.

Source: CryptoQuant

This bearish tilt from retail traders often prolongs market cycles, delaying the onset of sustained recoveries. Active addresses on the Bitcoin network decreased significantly, from 1.18 million in November 2024 to 872,000 by October 30, 2025—a 26.1% reduction that underscores diminished participation.

Source: CryptoQuant

Transaction fees also plummeted from $8.44 to $0.56 over the same timeframe, pointing to underutilized blocks and a clear retreat in everyday user transactions. This reduced on-chain activity from retail levels typically acts as a catalyst for extended consolidation phases before any upward momentum builds.

Source: CryptoQuant

Source: CryptoQuant

Frequently Asked Questions

What Caused Bitcoin’s Decline in October 2025?

Bitcoin’s drop in October 2025 stemmed from reduced retail interest, with active addresses falling 26.1%, alongside cooling network activity and transaction fees plummeting to $0.56. Macroeconomic elements, such as tempered Fed rate cut hopes and strong U.S. equities, intensified the pressure on BTC prices.

Is a Bitcoin Rally Likely in November 2025?

November has historically favored Bitcoin, posting an 8.81% median return since 2013 according to CoinGlass data. With easing trade tensions, a strong chance of a December Fed cut, ending quantitative tightening, and potential ETF approvals, conditions appear ripe for renewed upward movement in BTC.

Key Takeaways

• Declining Retail Engagement: Active addresses and transaction volumes decreased markedly, contributing to prolonged market cycles and slower rally development.
• Macro Tailwinds Emerging: Eased geopolitical risks and over 60% odds of a Fed rate cut could provide the liquidity boost needed for recovery.
• Historical November Strength: Monitor for potential double-digit gains, as seen in prior years, while watching on-chain metrics for signs of reversal.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s performance in October 2025 highlighted vulnerabilities from fading retail sentiment and macroeconomic headwinds, leading to a price correction below $110,000. As November approaches, with its proven track record for Bitcoin rallies and supportive factors like impending policy shifts, the market may shift toward optimism. Investors should track on-chain data and global events closely to navigate upcoming opportunities in the crypto landscape.