Bitcoin bull cycle is likely to extend into 2026 according to BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes, driven by anticipated US Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased liquidity. Investors should watch Fed policy shifts and fiscal stimulus as primary catalysts for sustained BTC upside.
-
Arthur Hayes expects the Bitcoin bull cycle to continue into 2026, citing anticipated US Federal Reserve rate cuts.
-
He says higher liquidity from monetary and fiscal policy will support Bitcoin’s upward trend despite short-term divergence versus stocks and gold.
-
Hayes dismisses strict four‑year cycle theory and projects further gains, including a potential target of $200,000 within the ongoing cycle.
Bitcoin bull cycle likely to extend into 2026 on Fed rate cuts and liquidity; read analysis and positioning guidance from Arthur Hayes. Learn what to watch next.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes the Bitcoin bull cycle may run until 2026, fueled by expected Fed rate cuts and economic stimulus.
BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes projects the current Bitcoin bull cycle could stretch into mid‑2026. In a recent interview Hayes said the market remains in an uptrend and that anticipated monetary easing—primarily US Federal Reserve rate cuts—will likely add liquidity that benefits Bitcoin.
What is the outlook for the Bitcoin bull cycle?
Bitcoin bull cycle outlook: Hayes argues the uptrend has room to run into 2026 as expected Fed rate cuts and new fiscal liquidity increase demand for scarce assets like BTC. Market breadth and macro factors will determine timing and magnitude.
How could Fed rate cuts extend the Bitcoin bull cycle?
Hayes links extended upside to a sustained easing cycle from the Federal Reserve. Analysts anticipate a series of reductions that could begin with a 25 basis‑point cut and continue through the following year.
Lower rates typically expand liquidity and reduce the real return on fiat cash, making alternative stores of value more attractive. Hayes expects a portion of that liquidity to flow into Bitcoin because of its capped supply.
Why does Hayes dismiss the four‑year cycle theory?
Hayes considers calendar‑based cycle theory too rigid. He emphasizes monetary policy and fiscal action as primary drivers, not fixed timeframes. That approach allows for an extended cycle if liquidity conditions persist beyond historical ranges.
How is current market behavior factoring into his view?
Hayes notes Bitcoin has lagged recent gains in the S&P 500 and gold, which have hit fresh highs. He calls this a short‑term deviation rather than a structural problem for BTC’s long‑term thesis.
According to Hayes, sideways price action in the near term does not negate further upside once monetary easing becomes clear. He names political pressure on policymakers and forthcoming FOMC decisions as key variables to monitor.
What are the practical implications for investors?
Positioning should be macro‑aware. Hayes suggests calibrating exposure to Bitcoin based on observable policy moves—especially rate cuts and fiscal stimulus announcements. Risk management remains essential given volatility.
How might liquidity injections influence Bitcoin price targets?
Hayes expects significant liquidity to favor scarce digital assets. He has publicly mentioned a potential Bitcoin path to $200,000 within the extended cycle, contingent on sustained easing and liquidity expansion.
Frequently Asked Questions
Could macro policy push Bitcoin to $200,000?
Hayes suggests a $200,000 outcome is possible if monetary easing and fiscal liquidity accelerate. This relies on prolonged rate cuts and significant liquidity flows into alternative assets.
How soon could the Fed begin cutting rates?
Market expectations mentioned in the interview pointed to an initial 25 basis‑point reduction followed by additional cuts; timing depends on incoming inflation and employment data.
Key Takeaways
- Extended cycle probable: Hayes expects the Bitcoin bull cycle to continue into mid‑2026 driven by policy easing.
- Liquidity is central: Rate cuts and fiscal stimulus increase liquidity that can flow into scarce assets like BTC.
- Policy watchers decide timing: Close attention to FOMC moves, Fed commentary, and fiscal measures is essential for positioning.
Conclusion
Arthur Hayes frames the Bitcoin bull cycle as primarily policy‑driven, not calendar‑bound. If US Federal Reserve rate cuts and fiscal liquidity increase as anticipated, Bitcoin may see extended upside into 2026. Investors should track official Fed communications and liquidity metrics and adjust positions with disciplined risk management.
