The odds of the SEC approving an XRP ETF have dropped to 66%, but Bloomberg analysts maintain a 95% forecast, viewing the dissent of a single SEC commissioner as insignificant.
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Crenshaw’s vote against crypto ETFs caused a temporary drop in XRP approval odds, but Bloomberg analysts remain confident in a positive outcome.
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Bloomberg’s 95% approval forecast for XRP ETFs stands, with analysts dismissing the impact of Crenshaw’s lone opposition vote.
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Crenshaw’s criticism of Ripple’s settlement with the SEC emphasizes her strong anti-crypto stance, yet her influence on decisions remains limited.
Despite a recent decline in XRP ETF approval odds, Bloomberg analysts remain optimistic, projecting a 95% chance of approval. Read more for insights.
| XRP ETF Approval Odds | Current Odds | Bloomberg Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Current Odds | 66% | 95% |
What is the Current Status of XRP ETF Approval?
The odds of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) recently saw a sharp decline to 66%. This drop follows SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw’s vote against 13 crypto ETF initiatives, marking the lowest approval odds since January. Despite this, Bloomberg analysts maintain a 95% forecast for approval.
How Has Crenshaw’s Vote Affected XRP ETF Approval Odds?
Crenshaw’s lone opposition to the crypto ETF initiatives raised concerns among some investors, leading to the drop in approval odds on the Polymarket platform. Despite her consistent rejection of crypto-based ETFs, including spot Bitcoin ETFs, her stance is seen as unlikely to influence the SEC’s decision-making process. Crenshaw has been the only commissioner to vote against all crypto-related ETF proposals, making her opposition appear less impactful.
Bloomberg Analysts Hold Firm on XRP ETF Approval
Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, dismissed the overreaction seen on the Polymarket. He argued that Crenshaw’s dissent carries little weight in the broader approval process, given her position as a lone anti-crypto commissioner. Balchunas maintains that the SEC’s approval odds for an XRP ETF are still high, with the agency likely to approve it despite Crenshaw’s vote.
Interesting, trades reporting how Polymarket odds of XRP ETF approval went down to 62% after the votes were disclosed showing Crenshaw voting no, but a) she’s gonna vote no on EVERYTHING and b) it’s meaningless, she’s outnumbered = we haven’t changed our odds, still at 95%. pic.twitter.com/Ip9G748HrU
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 7, 2025
Crenshaw’s opposition extends beyond ETF proposals. She also criticized the SEC’s decision to settle with Ripple, suggesting the agency was hesitant about winning its appeal against the company. Despite her views, the judge rejected the settlement, leading Ripple to drop its cross-appeal against the SEC. The agency has yet to provide its response, and the SEC’s overall stance remains uncertain, especially with Crenshaw’s dissenting position.
Despite the recent dip in the XRP ETF approval odds, experts like Balchunas from Bloomberg maintain their optimistic outlook. The consistent votes in favor of crypto initiatives from other SEC commissioners, coupled with Crenshaw’s lone opposition, suggest the approval odds for an XRP ETF remain favorable.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors influence XRP ETF approval odds?
Factors include SEC commissioner votes, market sentiment, and regulatory developments. Crenshaw’s opposition has raised concerns, but overall sentiment remains optimistic.
Why is Bloomberg confident in XRP ETF approval?
Bloomberg’s confidence stems from the majority support among SEC commissioners and historical trends favoring ETF approvals, despite dissenting opinions.
Key Takeaways
- XRP ETF Approval Odds: Currently at 66%, down from previous highs.
- Bloomberg’s Forecast: Analysts maintain a 95% approval forecast, dismissing Crenshaw’s dissent.
- Market Sentiment: Overall optimism remains strong among other SEC commissioners.
Conclusion
In summary, while the odds for XRP ETF approval have dipped to 66%, Bloomberg’s unwavering 95% forecast highlights the resilience of market sentiment. With a majority of SEC commissioners likely to support the initiative, the outlook remains positive for XRP investors.
