In the Kalshi prediction market for The Best AI by the End of 2025, the market assigns an 86% probability to Google’s Gemini, 8% to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, and 6% to xAI’s Grok. The trading volume reaches $14.08 million as participants price relative confidence across leading AI models. At the start of the year, the distribution was Gemini 30%, ChatGPT 41%, Grok 14%, illustrating evolving sentiment among traders.

The final settlement will align with the LM Arena leaderboard data, providing a transparent reference for outcomes. The current read highlights continued liquidity in the crypto-oriented risk-on segment and a disciplined approach to event-driven exposure. Investors can monitor these shifts as a lens into how nascent AI benchmarks are priced by the market, with no speculative claims beyond observable pricing data.