Deutsche Bank Says Gold’s Rebound Could See Bitcoin Added to Central Bank Reserves by 2030

• Gold now accounts for ~24% of global official reserves — the highest share since the 1990s.

• Deutsche Bank reports official gold demand is running at twice its 2011–2021 average, highlighting parallels with Bitcoin’s 2025 rally.

• Analysts predict Bitcoin and gold may both appear on some central bank balance sheets by 2030, if volatility and liquidity concerns ease.

Bitcoin reserve asset potential tied to gold’s rise: learn why central banks may add BTC to reserves — official data and expert analysis. Read the full analysis.

Gold has hit its highest share of central bank reserves in decades, a shift Deutsche Bank says could influence Bitcoin’s path as a potential reserve asset.

Central banks worldwide have increased official gold holdings in recent years, a structural move that analysts say may reshape how sovereign reserves evolve — and could bolster Bitcoin’s appeal as a reserve candidate.

Deutsche Bank strategists report gold’s share of global official reserves rose to around 24% in Q2 — the highest level since the 1990s. That shift, coupled with accelerated official demand, has prompted comparisons between gold and Bitcoin.

What explains gold’s renewed role in reserves?

Gold’s recovery to inflation-adjusted highs reflects decades of changed policy and renewed official accumulation. Deutsche Bank cites past central bank selling, institutional divestments, and the end of gold pegs after the Bretton Woods collapse as contributors to prior underweighting.

How recent data shows gold reclaiming inflation-adjusted highs

Gold has finally surpassed its real-adjusted all-time highs from roughly 45 years ago. Official demand has been running at about twice the 2011–2021 average, indicating sustained central bank buying rather than a short-lived surge.

Composition of global official reserve assets (at market price). Source: Deutsche Bank

Analysts point out that this renewed accumulation mirrors behaviour common earlier in the 20th century, when gold was a formal part of many reserve strategies.

How does Bitcoin compare as a reserve candidate?

Bitcoin reserve asset prospects hinge on several measurable factors: volatility trends, correlation with traditional assets, liquidity depth, custody solutions and institutional adoption. Deutsche Bank’s Marion Laboure highlights parallels in performance and diversification that strengthen Bitcoin’s candidacy.

Bitcoin vs. gold 30-day volatility. Source: Deutsche Bank

Both assets have experienced periods of extreme volatility and underperformance, yet both now offer diversification benefits due to low correlation with traditional assets. Bitcoin’s record-breaking 2025 performance and increased institutional exposure are central to the discussion.

What are the main barriers to Bitcoin adoption by central banks?

Key limitations remain: perceived speculative nature, cyber and custody risks, liquidity constraints in stress periods, and the fact that Bitcoin is not backed by a sovereign. Nevertheless, volatility has moderated from earlier cycles, and institutional-grade custody and trading infrastructure have improved.

When might central banks add Bitcoin to reserves?

Deutsche Bank’s report suggests the possibility that Bitcoin and gold may both feature on central bank balance sheets by 2030, contingent on continued institutional adoption and tangible improvements in custody and liquidity frameworks.

Deutsche Bank’s macro strategist Marion Laboure predicted that Bitcoin and gold may both feature on central bank sheets by 2030. Source: Deutsche Bank

Laboure and other strategists note central bankers’ primary mandate is value preservation; any BTC allocation would likely be modest, carefully governed, and subject to rigorous stress testing.

Frequently Asked Questions

Could Bitcoin replace gold in reserves?

Not likely in the near term. Bitcoin may complement gold as a niche reserve allocation, offering diversification, but gold’s long history and liquidity profile make it a persistent core reserve asset.

How big would a central bank’s Bitcoin allocation be?

Any initial allocation would probably be small (low single digits of reserve portfolios), used for diversification and strategic hedging rather than primary reserve backing.

What data supports this analysis?

Deutsche Bank’s report and central bank balance sheet data show rising official gold demand and a growing institutional ecosystem for Bitcoin, which together form the empirical basis for reserve-adoption scenarios.

Key Takeaways

• Gold’s resurgence: Official gold share is ~24%, highest since the 1990s, signaling structural reserve shifts.
• Bitcoin’s candidacy: Lowered volatility and institutional adoption make BTC a potential complement to gold.
• 2030 thesis: Analysts suggest Bitcoin and gold could both appear on some central bank balance sheets by 2030 if key risks are mitigated.

Conclusion

The growing weight of gold in central bank reserves strengthens the narrative that alternative scarcity assets can serve strategic reserve roles. Combined with improving institutional infrastructure and muted volatility, Bitcoin reserve asset discussions are transitioning from theoretical to tactical. Policymakers and reserve managers will likely pilot small, governed BTC allocations before any material shift; readers should monitor official reserve reports and institutional custody developments.