- Crypto prediction platform Polymarket sees a historic surge in volume following an assassination attempt on Donald Trump.
- According to Dune Analytics, Polymarket reached a monthly volume of $116.4 million, surpassing its previous record of $111.5 million set in June.
- Significant trading volume is linked to users betting on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
Polymarket Achieves Record Volume Amid U.S. Election Speculations and Unforeseen Events
Polymarket Volume Hits All-Time High
In the aftermath of an attempted assassination on Donald Trump, crypto prediction platform Polymarket has achieved unprecedented trading volume. Data from Dune Analytics revealed that Polymarket hit a new record monthly volume of $116.4 million, eclipsing its previous high of $111.5 million in June. This surge in activity highlights the increasing interest and engagement in political betting markets.
User Bets on U.S. Presidential Election Drive Volume
The majority of Polymarket’s trading volume can be attributed to users betting on the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. As of now, participants have wagered a staggering $263.5 million on which candidate will likely emerge victorious in the November 4 election. Currently, Donald Trump leads with a 69% chance of winning, followed by Joe Biden at 19%. Vice President Kamala Harris holds 6%, while former First Lady Michelle Obama stands at 2%, rounding out the top contenders.
Nate Silver Joins Polymarket
According to a July 16 report by Axios, renowned election analyst and statistician Nate Silver has joined Polymarket as an advisor. Silver has emphasized the importance of prediction markets in understanding broader social and political sentiments, especially during tumultuous times. He stated, “Planning involves considering probabilities, which are crucial.” Silver also noted the potential risks involved in Trump selecting crypto-friendly Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate, a viewpoint shared by few analysts.
Significant Investments and Influential Support
Polymarket closed a Series B funding round on May 14, led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, raising $70 million. Notable participants included Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin. While the platform remains unavailable to U.S. residents, it primarily serves as a venue for speculation on American political events.
Conclusion
Polymarket’s record-breaking volume underscores its growing role in political predictions, driven by major events like the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and the impending U.S. presidential election. As influential personalities like Nate Silver join the platform, Polymarket continues to cement its position at the intersection of finance, politics, and technology, offering valuable insights into public sentiment and future outcomes.
