Ethereum’s exchange balances have fallen to a nine-year low (down ~52%), reducing on-exchange liquidity and raising liquidation risk near the $3,700 support. Institutional and whale accumulation has offset some selling pressure, but low exchange supply increases short-term volatility and liquidation sensitivity.
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Exchange balances down ~52%: from ~31M ETH to ~14.8M ETH, signaling reduced on-exchange liquidity.
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Critical support at $3,700–$3,800 — below this, leveraged liquidations may accelerate.
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Whale purchases of 431,018 ETH (~$1.73B between Sep 25–27) show strong institutional accumulation.
Meta description: Ethereum exchange balances down ~52%, raising liquidation risk near $3,700 support; institutional buying continues. Read key takeaways and expert analysis.
Ethereum’s exchange balances fall to a nine-year low, with rising liquidation risks near the $3,700 level. Whale activity shows strong institutional demand.
- Ethereum’s exchange balances drop over 52%, signaling reduced liquidity and increased volatility risks in the market.
- Analyst Ted identifies $3,700 to $3,800 as critical support, with liquidation risks if Ethereum falls below this range.
- Institutional and whale investors continue to accumulate Ethereum, with $1.73 billion in ETH purchases between September 25-27.
Ethereum’s exchange balances have plummeted to their lowest level since 2016, marking a significant shift in market dynamics. According to data from Glassnode, exchange-held ETH fell from roughly 31 million to approximately 14.8 million ETH, a decline of over 52%. This movement off exchanges into cold storage, staking contracts and institutional custody reflects growing long-term holding behavior and demand following recent staking ETF launches.
What is the immediate risk from Ethereum’s lower exchange balances?
Lower exchange balances increase price sensitivity and liquidation risk because less on-exchange supply means smaller market orders can push prices further. Reduced liquidity amplifies volatility and raises the chance that price moves through key supports will trigger leveraged liquidations.
How vulnerable is Ethereum near the $3,700 support?
Market analyst Ted identified $3,700–$3,800 as a crucial support band. If price breaches this range, many leveraged long positions could be liquidated, driving forced selling. Short-term vulnerability is elevated while long-term on-chain indicators (staking, institutional custody) remain bullish.
$ETH liquidity heatmap is showing decent long liquidations around the $3,700-$3,800 level.
This level could be revisited again before Ethereum shows any recovery. pic.twitter.com/SQTbfrujAa
— Ted (@TedPillows) September 27, 2025
Price volatility has been material: Ethereum lost more than 10% in the past week, reflecting the thinner liquidity profile on exchanges. On-chain analytics provider Lookonchain reports that 16 wallets purchased 431,018 ETH (~$1.73 billion) between September 25–27, indicating sizeable accumulation by deep-pocketed market participants. These whale buys suggest institutional appetite and provide a counterweight to retail selling pressure.
Why are institutions still buying despite higher short-term risk?
Institutions are accumulating due to long-term staking yield prospects, ETF-driven demand and Ethereum’s central role in decentralized finance. Large custody providers and exchanges offering institutional services (reported purchases noted by on-chain analytics sources) have contributed to concentrated accumulation.
How should traders assess the situation?
- Monitor support levels: watch $3,700–$3,800 closely for liquidation cascades.
- Check exchange flows: sustained outflows reduce liquidity; sudden inflows may signal sell pressure.
- Track whale wallets: significant buys can signal institutional accumulation and a potential stabilizing force.
- Use risk controls: consider position sizing and stop-losses given elevated short-term volatility.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much have exchange balances fallen?
Exchange balances dropped from roughly 31 million ETH to about 14.8 million ETH, a decline of over 52%, based on Glassnode exchange-flow data reported by on-chain analytics providers.
What happens if ETH falls below $3,700?
If ETH falls below $3,700, leveraged long positions may be liquidated en masse, increasing downward momentum and exacerbating price declines until liquidity absorbs the selling pressure.
Key Takeaways
- Exchange liquidity is low: A ~52% decline in on-exchange ETH reduces market depth and raises volatility.
- Critical support exists: $3,700–$3,800 is a key zone where liquidation risk is concentrated.
- Institutional demand persists: Whale purchases (~431,018 ETH / $1.73B) indicate strong accumulation even amid short-term risk.
Conclusion
Ethereum’s nine-year low in exchange balances increases short-term liquidation risk near the $3,700 support, while institutional and whale accumulation underpins longer-term demand. Traders should balance vigilance around key supports with recognition that large-scale buyers continue to position for a multi-month horizon. For up-to-date on-chain figures, consult Glassnode and on-chain analytics reports; this article is published by COINOTAG on 2025-09-27 and updated the same day.
