Galaxy Digital has lowered its Bitcoin end-of-year 2025 price target from $185,000 to $120,000 due to institutional absorption challenges, leveraged liquidations, and long-term holder distributions. Despite short-term headwinds, the firm remains bullish on Bitcoin’s structural bull market.
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Bitcoin enters maturity era: Institutional flows now dominate, reducing volatility and shifting away from retail speculation.
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Recent market crash on October 10 led to $20 billion in liquidations, the largest in crypto history.
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Long-term holders offloaded 470,000 to 400,000 BTC, valued at $50 billion to $43 billion, creating price resistance; U.S. spot ETFs saw over $1 billion in outflows.
Discover Galaxy Digital’s updated Bitcoin 2025 price prediction of $120,000 amid market corrections and ETF outflows. Explore key factors and long-term outlook for BTC investors today.
What is Galaxy Digital’s revised Bitcoin price target for 2025?
Galaxy Digital’s Bitcoin price target for end-of-year 2025 has been adjusted downward to $120,000 from a previous forecast of $185,000. This revision stems from concerns including slowed institutional absorption, increased leveraged liquidations, and substantial selling by long-term holders. Despite these pressures, the firm emphasizes that Bitcoin’s three-year bull market structure remains intact, with potential to hold above $100,000.
How has the recent market crash impacted Bitcoin’s price?
The cryptocurrency market faced a significant downturn on October 10, resulting in approximately $20 billion in liquidations across various assets, marking the largest such event in history according to on-chain analytics. Bitcoin’s price dipped below $105,000 after peaking at $121,000, reflecting heightened volatility driven by leveraged positions unwinding. This crash has contributed to a broader 20% decline from Bitcoin’s October 26 all-time high of $69,000, though analysts view corrections of 20% to 25% as typical, with historical precedents exceeding 30%. Supporting data from blockchain trackers shows declining spot demand, exacerbating the short-term bearish sentiment.
Galaxy Digital’s research highlights that Bitcoin has transitioned into a “maturity era,” where market dynamics are increasingly shaped by institutional investments rather than retail speculation. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, stated in a client note shared on X, “I’m lowering my BTC bullish EOY target to $120k (prev $185k). Whale distribution, non-BTC investments, treasury company malaise, and other factors contributed to BTC headwinds in 25. (Long-term future still bullish, of course).” This perspective underscores the role of passive ETF flows and low volatility in stabilizing the market, even as upside potential moderates.
i’m lowering my BTC bullish EOY target to $120k (prev $185k) 👀
just sent this note to clients
whale distribution, non-BTC investments, treasury company malaise, and other factors contributed to BTC headwinds in 25
(long-term future still bullish, of course)
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) November 5, 2025
On-chain metrics reveal that long-term holders distributed between 470,000 and 400,000 BTC, equivalent to $50 billion to $43 billion in value, during the recent bearish phase. This selling activity has established strong resistance at critical price levels, hindering upward momentum. Additionally, U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have recorded outflows for five straight days, totaling more than $1 billion, which signals weakening investor confidence and a pivot away from crypto exposure.
Why are investors shifting capital from Bitcoin to other assets?
Capital rotation plays a pivotal role in the current Bitcoin price dynamics, with funds migrating toward sectors like artificial intelligence and traditional safe-havens such as gold. Alex Thorn explained that AI infrastructure firms and data center investments have experienced substantial gains, drawing capital as Bitcoin’s speculative allure diminishes in a maturing market. Geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties further encourage this shift, positioning gold as a preferred inflation hedge.
In a liquidity-abundant environment, investor attention is limited, and 2025 has seen a pronounced tilt toward high-growth areas outside digital assets, per Galaxy Digital’s analysis. The firm observes that while Bitcoin spot ETFs have introduced market stability through passive institutional participation, they have not consistently propelled prices higher. Instead, these vehicles have dampened short-term volatility, creating a more predictable but less explosive trading landscape.
CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno warns that persistent bearish trends could push Bitcoin as low as $72,000 in the near term, based on sustained ETF outflows and reduced spot buying since the October crash. Current trading shows Bitcoin recovering over 5% to around $103,322 following a dip below $100,000 earlier in the week, while Ethereum has rebounded nearly 12% to $3,400 after falling under $3,100. However, ongoing ETF capital drains leave the market susceptible to additional pullbacks.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors led to Galaxy Digital’s Bitcoin 2025 price prediction revision?
Galaxy Digital revised its Bitcoin 2025 price target to $120,000 citing institutional absorption slowdowns, leveraged position liquidations totaling $20 billion in October, and long-term holder sales of up to 470,000 BTC. These elements have introduced headwinds, though the firm’s long-term bullish stance persists due to intact market cycles.
Is Bitcoin’s bull market over after the recent correction?
No, Bitcoin’s structural bull market remains solid despite the 20% correction from its October high. Experts like Alex Thorn at Galaxy Digital affirm that the asset can sustain levels above $100,000, with institutional flows providing a foundation for future growth, even if gains moderate in the short term.
Key Takeaways
- Revised Target: Galaxy Digital now forecasts Bitcoin at $120,000 by end-2025, down from $185,000, due to distribution and outflows.
- Market Maturity: Institutional dominance has ushered in lower volatility and ETF-driven stability, reducing retail speculation’s influence.
- Long-Term Outlook: Despite short-term pressures, Bitcoin’s fundamentals support holding key levels; monitor ETF flows for recovery signals.
Conclusion
Galaxy Digital’s adjusted Bitcoin 2025 price prediction to $120,000 reflects a cautious view amid ETF outflows, long-term holder distributions, and capital shifts to AI and gold, yet underscores the cryptocurrency’s enduring bull market structure. As institutional traders increasingly shape the landscape, Bitcoin’s maturity era promises stability over speculation. Investors should stay informed on on-chain data and macroeconomic trends to navigate potential corrections effectively.
