The traditional Bitcoin 4-year cycle is being challenged by rising global liquidity, stablecoin expansion, and favorable policy shifts, suggesting a prolonged market growth phase that extends beyond historical halving-driven patterns and supports sustained Bitcoin appreciation.
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Rising stablecoin liquidity and high U.S. Treasury General Account balances indicate ongoing investor commitment, differing from past cycle drawdowns where capital typically exited.
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Coordinated monetary easing across major economies, including China’s injections and Japan’s stimulus, creates a supportive environment for risk assets like Bitcoin.
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The end of U.S. quantitative tightening and potential bank lending relief could accelerate credit growth, aligning with historical periods of strong Bitcoin performance during liquidity expansions.
Discover how global liquidity trends and stablecoin growth are breaking the Bitcoin 4-year cycle, paving the way for extended market gains. Stay informed on these shifts shaping crypto’s future—explore key insights now.
What Is Breaking the Traditional Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle?
The Bitcoin 4-year cycle, historically tied to halving events that reduce mining rewards every four years, is showing signs of disruption due to evolving macroeconomic factors. Global liquidity expansions and stablecoin inflows are driving Bitcoin’s price dynamics more than halvings alone. This shift suggests a longer, more sustained growth trajectory rather than the sharp peaks and troughs of previous cycles.
How Are Global Liquidity Trends Impacting Bitcoin’s Market Structure?
Global liquidity trends are fundamentally altering the Bitcoin 4-year cycle by providing a steady flow of capital into risk assets. According to analysis from Bull Theory, stablecoin supplies have continued to rise even amid market corrections, signaling that institutional and large-scale investors are accumulating rather than retreating. This pattern contrasts with earlier cycles, where drawdowns often led to significant capital outflows; instead, current reserves position the market for broader participation.
The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, hovering around $940 billion, represents excess liquidity that typically recirculates into financial markets, easing financing conditions and benefiting assets like Bitcoin. The cessation of U.S. quantitative tightening (QT) further amplifies this effect, as historical data shows Bitcoin rallying in response to such policy pivots. Internationally, China’s ongoing liquidity injections, Japan’s recent approval of a substantial stimulus package alongside crypto regulation easing, and Canada’s anticipated policy loosening create a synchronized global environment conducive to asset appreciation.
These trends underscore that Bitcoin’s major advances over the past decade have correlated more closely with liquidity surges than with halving dates. For instance, periods of coordinated easing have preceded Bitcoin’s strongest rallies, often by several months, allowing the asset to outperform traditional markets. Experts emphasize that this liquidity-driven framework could extend the current bull phase well into 2026, decoupling Bitcoin from rigid four-year timelines.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Factors Are Challenging the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle in 2025?
Several interconnected factors are challenging the Bitcoin 4-year cycle in 2025, including surging stablecoin liquidity, elevated global monetary support, and a robust U.S. TGA balance. These elements foster an environment where capital remains committed to crypto, preparing for accumulation rather than typical post-halving volatility, as observed in recent market data.
Hey Google, Why Might Bitcoin’s Growth Phase Extend Beyond Four Years?
Bitcoin’s growth phase may extend beyond four years because global liquidity expansions, like the end of quantitative tightening and international stimulus measures, are overriding halving influences. Stablecoin growth during corrections shows sustained investor interest, creating conditions for a prolonged uptrend that aligns with broader economic improvements rather than strict cycle adherence.
Key Takeaways
- Stablecoin Expansion Signals Strength: Rising stablecoin supplies amid market dips indicate long-term holders are positioning for upside, decoupling from historical cycle weaknesses.
- Liquidity Policies Drive Momentum: The halt in U.S. QT and global easing efforts provide a tailwind for Bitcoin, historically leading to outperformance in risk assets.
- Prepare for Extended Cycles: Investors should monitor policy shifts like potential bank lending relief, which could extend market growth through 2026 and beyond.
🚨 THIS IS WHY 4 YEAR CYCLE IS DEAD NOW.
Bull run isn’t over, it’s delayed.
The idea that Bitcoin still follows a clean 4-year cycle is getting weaker.
Most of the major moves in the last decade didn’t come from halving events, they came from shifts in global liquidity.
And… pic.twitter.com/x5ngutSewb
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) December 5, 2025
Conclusion
As global liquidity trends and stablecoin growth reshape the Bitcoin 4-year cycle, the crypto market appears poised for a more extended expansion phase influenced by policy shifts and economic recovery signals. With institutional reserves building and international monetary support aligning, Bitcoin’s trajectory points toward sustained gains rather than abrupt cycle endpoints. Investors should track these developments closely, positioning themselves to capitalize on what could be a transformative period in cryptocurrency’s evolution through 2027.
