Grayscale Solana ETF Launch May Attract $3 Billion Inflows Amid Neutral Sentiment

• Grayscale Solana ETF Launch: Converts four-year-old trust into spot ETF, including 75% staked SOL assets.

• Bitwise’s SOL ETF achieved $56 million in first-day volume and $69.5 million in net inflows, setting a strong precedent.

• Bloomberg analysts project over $3 billion in cumulative inflows for SOL ETFs within 12-18 months, based on relative market caps to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Discover how Grayscale Solana ETF launch impacts SOL price and investor opportunities. Explore projections, market reactions, and expert insights on this pivotal crypto development. Stay informed and position your portfolio today.

What is the Grayscale Solana ETF and How Does It Work?

The Grayscale Solana ETF, ticker GSOL, is a spot exchange-traded fund that provides investors with direct exposure to the price of Solana (SOL) cryptocurrency, including staking rewards from its underlying assets. Launched on October 29, 2025, following approval from the New York Stock Exchange, it converts the longstanding Grayscale Solana Trust into a more accessible ETF format. This structure allows traditional investors to gain SOL exposure without directly managing digital wallets or exchanges, while the fund’s 75% staked holdings generate additional yields.

How Will the Grayscale Solana ETF Affect SOL’s Market Dynamics?

The introduction of the Grayscale Solana ETF is poised to enhance liquidity and institutional interest in SOL, potentially stabilizing its price in the long term despite initial volatility. Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have highlighted the ETF’s potential to attract significant capital, estimating inflows comparable to a fraction of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs based on SOL’s market cap, which stands at about 5% of Bitcoin’s and 22% of Ethereum’s. As of the launch, the fund manages 525,387 SOL, valued at $102.6 million, with data from on-chain analytics showing steady staking participation that could bolster network security and yield returns for ETF holders.

Expert commentary from Balchunas notes the competitive landscape, pointing out that while Bitwise’s BSOL ETF saw robust $56 million in day-one trading volume—outperforming many 2025 debuts—Grayscale’s entry as the second major SOL ETF could fragment inflows but ultimately expand the market. Seyffart elaborated, “Solana’s market cap positioning suggests $3+ billion in flows over the first 12 to 18 months if patterns from ETH and BTC ETFs hold.” This projection underscores the ETF’s role in bridging traditional finance and blockchain, with staking features differentiating it by offering passive income streams. Short-term price dips, such as SOL’s drop from $200 to $190, reflect typical “sell-the-news” reactions observed in prior crypto ETF launches, but options market indicators like the 25-Delta Risk Reversal show neutral-to-bullish sentiment, with readings from 0.86 to 3-6 signaling trader bets on upside recovery starting in November.

Grayscale is scheduled to launch its U.S.-based Spot Solana [SOL] ETF, a day after Bitwise made a similar move.

The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) signed off and certified Grayscale’s product (GSOL), effectively allowing it to begin trading on the 29th of October. In fact, the digital asset manager confirmed the launch, adding that the GSOL would include staking rewards.

Source: X

Worth noting that the GSOL will be converted into an ETF. However, it has been in operation for four years as Grayscale Solana Trust.

As of writing, the Trust had 525,387 SOL, translating to $102.6 million in assets under management (AUM). About 75% of the stash is staked.

What’s Next for SOL Price Following the Grayscale Solana ETF Launch?

The Bitwise SOL ETF (BSOL) raked in $56 million in day-one trading volume and $69.5 million in Daily Net Inflow.

In terms of volume, Bitwise’s BSOL debut performance was an outlier this year, noted Bloomberg ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas.

Source: X

Reacting to Grayscale’s launch, Balchunas added,

“This is tough. That one day is pretty big. But I guess being 2nd isn’t too bad. The other issuers prob pretty pissed.”

For his part, another Bloomberg ETF Analyst, James Seyffart, estimated that SOL ETFs could haul $3 billion in cumulative inflows in a year. He said,

“Solana’s market cap is 5% of Bitcoin’s and 22% of Ethereum. If they keep up with the flows we’ve seen for ETH and BTC ETFs on a relative basis, that would equate to like $3+ billion in flows over the first 12 to 18 months.”

Frequently Asked Questions

Will the Grayscale Solana ETF Launch Trigger Outflows from Existing SOL Products?

The Grayscale Solana ETF may experience initial outflows similar to those seen in past conversions, such as from its Trust structure, but overall market sentiment remains neutral to bullish in the mid-term. With 75% of assets already staked, the ETF’s yield-generating features could mitigate net redemptions, drawing in new institutional capital estimated at billions by Bloomberg analysts.

What Are the Projected Inflows for Solana ETFs Like Grayscale’s GSOL?

Analysts from Bloomberg project that Solana ETFs, including Grayscale’s GSOL, could see over $3 billion in inflows within the first 12 to 18 months. This forecast draws from SOL’s relative market cap to Bitcoin and Ethereum, where similar spot ETFs have captured substantial volumes, providing a natural spoken-language summary for voice search on investment potential.

Key Takeaways

• Strong Debut Potential: Bitwise’s SOL ETF set a benchmark with $56 million in first-day volume, suggesting Grayscale’s GSOL could follow suit despite being second to market.
• Inflow Projections: Bloomberg experts forecast $3 billion in SOL ETF inflows over 12-18 months, driven by institutional demand and staking rewards in GSOL.
• Price Sentiment: Despite short-term dips to $190, options data indicates neutral-to-bullish mid-term outlook, encouraging traders to monitor November expiries for recovery signals.

Market Reaction and Trader Sentiment After Grayscale Solana ETF Debut

But SOL’s price slipped from $200 to $190 despite the incredible debut and the lined-up ETFs.

Well, past crypto ETF debuts were met with “sell-the-news” vibes. And most of the outflows came from Grayscale products.

Source: SOL/USDT, TradingView

Hence, the Grayscale launch will be incredible to track and the potential impact on SOL’s price in the short term.

Even so, the Options market data signalled a neutral-to-bullish sentiment in the mid-term.

As illustrated by the 25-Delta Risk Reversal (25RR), the upcoming Option expiries had a 0.86 (neutral) to 3-6 (bullish) readings per the indicator. It meant traders were paying more for upside protection in November.

Source: Amberdata

Put differently, despite the muted SOL price action, some speculators were betting on a potential strong recovery from November.

Conclusion

The Grayscale Solana ETF launch marks a significant milestone for SOL, integrating staking rewards and converting substantial trust assets into a regulated product that could attract $3 billion in inflows, as projected by Bloomberg analysts. With neutral-to-bullish trader sentiment and historical precedents from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs guiding expectations, this development enhances Solana’s position in the crypto ecosystem. Investors should watch price dynamics closely, as mid-term recovery signals point to renewed growth opportunities in the evolving digital asset market.