The Probability of SEC Approving Spot Bitcoin ETFs Has Risen to 90%! How Did This Happen?

• Bloomberg ETF analysts have raised the probability of approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to 90%.
• Analysts are expecting the SEC to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF by January 10. Recent updates show positive dialogue with the SEC.
• Analysts believe that the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets is cornered, with courts and other issuers pressuring the SEC to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF.

The expectation of the SEC not appealing the court decision regarding Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF strengthens the outlook: Will ETFs be approved this year?

Expectations for Bitcoin ETF Approvals

Bloomberg ETF analysts have raised the probability of approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to 90%. This came after Ark Invest and 21Shares updated their Bitcoin ETF proposals in response to the SEC’s request. Meanwhile, the SEC decided not to appeal the court’s decision to allow Grayscale to convert its GBTC product into a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Bloomberg’s analysts, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, raised the chances of spot Bitcoin ETF approval to 90%. This move was made after Ark Invest and 21Shares updated their Bitcoin ETF proposal following a request from the U.S. SEC.

Analysts expect the SEC to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF by January 10. Recent updates indicate positive dialogue with the SEC. Ark Invest added five extra pages to their application, addressing risk disclosures, new language, and more context.

“The dialogue between the SEC and fund providers, while standard practice for new launches, is a first for spot Bitcoin ETF applications and shows that the SEC is working to approve Ark’s proposal.”

Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, shared that Invesco Galaxy also updated its spot Bitcoin ETF proposal in response to ARK Invest’s SEC comments. Other applicants are also expected to update their documents soon.

SEC Decides Not to Appeal Grayscale’s Decision

The SEC decided not to appeal the Grayscale court decision. James Seffart also mentioned that if the Grayscale case to convert GBTC to spot Bitcoin concludes by the end of this year, SEC approval might come earlier. Analysts believe that the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets is cornered, with courts and other issuers pressuring the SEC to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF.

Grayscale has also applied for an Ether ETF. The probability of an Ether ETF approval is higher. In fact, ProShares is launching a short-term Ethereum futures ETF (Short ETH Strategy ETF) next week. Trading will begin on October 16, and its ticker symbol will be SETH.