XRP Exchange Reserves and Whale Activity Suggest Possible Short-Term Correction Ahead

• XRP exchange reserves have surged to their highest point since January 2025, echoing a previous peak that led to a significant 20% price correction.

• Whale transactions have reached a three-month high, suggesting potential distribution activity as Ripple consolidates its recent gains.

• According to COINOTAG, the $2.34 Fibonacci retracement level could serve as a key correction zone unless support at $2.77 holds and exchange reserves begin to decline.

XRP exchange reserves and whale activity hint at a possible 20% correction, with critical support levels at $2.77 and $2.34 shaping the near-term price outlook.

Rising XRP Exchange Reserves Indicate Potential Selling Pressure

XRP’s exchange reserves on Binance have climbed to 2.96 billion tokens, the highest since January 2025. This surge in reserves is a notable indicator of increased selling pressure, as more tokens are moved onto exchanges, potentially signaling upcoming sell-offs. Historical data from CryptoQuant shows that a similar spike in May 2025 preceded a 20% price correction, where XRP dropped from approximately $2.54 to $2.01 over several weeks. This pattern suggests caution for traders, as the current accumulation of XRP on exchanges could foreshadow a short-term price pullback.

XRP price and exchange reserves: CryptoQuant

Typically, rising exchange reserves precede distribution phases where holders prepare to liquidate positions. The parallel between the current reserve levels and the May 2025 peak strengthens the argument for a potential cooldown in XRP’s price momentum.

XRP price during the previous local high in exchange reserves: CryptoQuant

Surge in Whale Transactions Signals Possible Distribution Phase

Complementing the rise in exchange reserves, XRP whale transactions—transfers exceeding $1 million—have reached a three-month peak. Historical trends indicate that spikes in high-value transactions often precede distribution events, where large holders offload their assets to capitalize on local price highs. This surge in whale activity aligns closely with the exchange reserve increase, reinforcing the likelihood of a near-term correction.

XRP price and whale transactions: Santiment

The synchronization of these on-chain metrics provides a compelling case for traders to monitor XRP closely, as large-scale selling could pressure prices downward in the short term.

Technical Analysis Points to $2.34 as a Key Correction Level

From a technical standpoint, the recent rally from $1.90 to $3.03 places the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at approximately $2.34. This level is widely regarded as a critical support zone during corrections and consolidations. A decline to this price point would represent a roughly 20% pullback from current levels, mirroring the correction observed in May 2025 following a similar exchange reserve spike.

XRP price analysis: TradingView

Immediate support lies at $2.80 and $2.77, with the latter corresponding to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. These zones have historically provided price stability during minor pullbacks. Should XRP breach these supports, downward momentum could accelerate toward the $2.34 level.

Conversely, if XRP maintains support above $2.77 and exchange reserves begin to decline, it would signal renewed accumulation and potentially invalidate the bearish outlook. In such a scenario, the token could regain upward momentum, aiming to retest the recent high near $3.03, a critical resistance level in the current market cycle.

Conclusion

In summary, XRP’s recent on-chain data reveals a complex interplay between rising exchange reserves and increased whale transactions, both of which historically precede price corrections. The $2.34 Fibonacci retracement level emerges as a pivotal support zone, with immediate support at $2.77 critical for maintaining bullish momentum. Traders should watch these levels closely, as a breach could trigger a short-term 20% correction, while holding support may pave the way for renewed gains. Staying informed on these metrics will be essential for navigating XRP’s evolving price dynamics.