Ethereum Shows Potential for 40% Rally as Long-Term Holders Stay Inactive and ETH/BTC Ratio Surges

• Ethereum’s Age Consumed metric has plummeted over 98%, signaling strong conviction among long-term holders amid rising institutional interest.

• The ETH/BTC ratio has surged 50% since June 2025, mirroring patterns from 2021 that preceded Ethereum’s all-time high price surge.

• According to COINOTAG sources, Ethereum’s price structure suggests a potential breakout to $5,324 if it surpasses previous resistance levels.

Ethereum shows robust on-chain strength and institutional accumulation, with ETH/BTC ratio gains hinting at a possible 40% price rally toward $5,324.

Dormant ETH Stays Quiet While Institutions Buy Aggressively

Ethereum’s Age Consumed metric, which measures the volume of ETH moving from long-dormant wallets, has experienced a dramatic decline of over 98% in just two weeks. This sharp drop—from 795 million on July 10 to 12.47 million—indicates that long-term holders are steadfastly retaining their assets rather than selling during price rallies.

This behavior is a strong indicator of market confidence, as holders typically reduce activity near market tops. The lack of movement from these wallets suggests that Ethereum’s recent local highs are supported by conviction rather than speculative trading.

Simultaneously, institutional investors are increasing their exposure. SharpLink Gaming notably added 19,084 ETH—valued at over $67.5 million—to its reserves in a single transaction. This brings their total holdings to 345,158 ETH, worth approximately $1.22 billion at current prices.

This accumulation by major players, coupled with the inactivity of long-term holders, creates a bullish foundation for Ethereum’s price stability and potential growth.

ETH/BTC Ratio Is Repeating Its All-Time High Setup

Since June 2025, the ETH/BTC ratio has increased from 0.021 to 0.031, marking a 50% gain in Ethereum’s strength relative to Bitcoin. This movement closely mirrors the setup seen in late 2021, when a similar ratio increase preceded Ethereum’s all-time high price of $4,878.

At that time, a 30% rise in the ETH/BTC ratio coincided with a nearly 28% price increase for Ethereum. Applying this historical pattern to the current price of $3,753 suggests a potential price target near $4,800 to $4,900, aligning with the previous all-time high breakout zone.

Breaking above this psychological resistance could pave the way for Ethereum to test new price discovery levels above $5,000.

The ETH/BTC ratio serves as a critical indicator of Ethereum’s market share relative to Bitcoin. The recent surge and the presence of multi-EMA golden crossovers reinforce the momentum behind Ethereum’s bullish trajectory.

Ethereum Price Structure Projects A 40% Rally

Ethereum’s price action is currently following a well-established technical roadmap. After reclaiming key resistance near $3,635 (the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level), ETH is consolidating just below $3,832, preparing for a potential breakout.

The next significant resistance level to watch is $4,402. Historically, Ethereum rallied approximately 28% from similar consolidation zones, supported by a rising ETH/BTC ratio. Should ETH break above this level with conviction, the price structure indicates a possible advance toward $5,324, representing a 41.86% gain from current levels.

Conversely, a drop below $3,128 would invalidate this bullish setup, marking a critical support level for traders and investors to monitor closely.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s current on-chain metrics and technical indicators suggest a robust foundation for a significant price rally. The near silence of long-term holders combined with aggressive institutional accumulation and a strengthening ETH/BTC ratio creates a compelling narrative for a potential breakout beyond previous all-time highs. Investors should watch key resistance levels at $4,402 and $5,324 for confirmation of this bullish momentum, while maintaining vigilance around the $3,128 support threshold to manage downside risks effectively.