XRP is showing multiple bearish signals — rising exchange reserves, a descending triangle at $2.74, and a spike in dormant circulation — suggesting a likely short-term sell-off unless mean coin age and on-chain demand recover within two weeks.
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Bearish technical pattern: A descending triangle consolidated above $2.74, increasing downside risk.
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On-chain selling pressure: Exchange reserves surged and dormant circulation spiked on 01 September.
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NVT & MVRV signals: NVT ratio and 90-day MVRV point to relative overvaluation and minor losses for recent holders.
XRP sell-off risk rises as exchange reserves and dormant circulation spike; monitor mean coin age and exchange flows for signs of stabilization — read our analysis.
Is XRP likely to see a sizeable sell-off soon?
XRP sell-off probability increased as exchange reserves and dormant circulation surged while price consolidated in a descending triangle above $2.74. These on-chain flows, combined with elevated NVT readings and a drop in mean coin age, point to increased short-term downside risk unless buying activity returns.
What technical and on-chain metrics indicate XRP weakness?
Price action showed a descending triangle, which often precedes downside continuation. Exchange reserves climbed sharply, mirroring the spike in dormant circulation recorded on 01 September. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio rose, suggesting market value outpaced network activity. 90-day MVRV showed holders registering minor losses.
Source: XRP/USDT on TradingView (price chart). Analysis references on-chain metrics from Santiment and CryptoQuant and commentary from COINOTAG’s research.
How did holder behavior and coin age change recently?
On 01 September, dormant circulation among medium-term holders spiked as XRP briefly touched $2.6975. This movement decreased mean coin age and typically signals distribution. A rapid drop in mean coin age after a prolonged uptrend increases the odds of further weakness unless accumulation resumes.
Source: Santiment (on-chain holder metrics).
What do exchange reserves and liquidity flows suggest?
CryptoQuant data showed exchange reserves climbing to highs not seen in over a year. Rising exchange reserves often signal potential selling pressure as more tokens move to exchanges. Coupled with a potential downward breakout from $2.74, liquidity and order-book dynamics favor sellers in the short term.
Source: CryptoQuant (exchange reserve data).
Frequently Asked Questions
How likely is a short-term XRP crash?
Given the descending triangle, rising exchange reserves, and a spike in dormant circulation, a short-term sell-off is more likely than not. Recovery depends on mean coin age reversing and renewed accumulation by holders within the next two weeks.
Which on-chain metrics should traders monitor for signs of stabilization?
Monitor mean coin age, exchange reserves, NVT ratio, and 90-day MVRV. A falling exchange reserve trend and recovery in mean coin age would be the earliest positive signs for price stabilization.
Can XRP recover to $3 quickly?
Recovery to $3 requires consistent demand, reduced exchange flows, and improved network activity. With current metrics signaling selling pressure, a rapid rebound appears unlikely without a notable shift in on-chain behavior.
Key Takeaways
- Technical risk: Descending triangle undercuts bullish structure above $2.74.
- On-chain selling: Exchange reserves and dormant circulation spikes point to distribution pressure.
- Watch indicators: Mean coin age, NVT ratio, exchange reserve trends and MVRV for early signs of recovery.
Conclusion
This analysis shows rising downside risk for XRP based on technical patterns and on-chain indicators such as exchange reserves, dormant circulation, NVT and MVRV. Traders should monitor mean coin age and exchange flows closely. COINOTAG will continue to update this report as new data emerges.
