AERO Technical Analysis February 6, 2026: Market Structure

AERO is maintaining its downtrend by reinforcing the LH/LL structure with a sharp recent drop. Bearish pressure will continue as long as it stays below the $0.3627 resistance; if the $0.2580 support breaks, new lows are on the agenda.

Market Structure Overview

AERO's current market structure indicates a clear downtrend. The price is trading at $0.30 with a %14.65 drop in the last 24 hours and is stuck in the $0.27-$0.36 range. This structure is defined by lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) patterns – meaning each new high is lower than the previous high, and each new low is lower than the previous low. This is a classic indicator that sellers are in control. The price's inability to stay above EMA20 ($0.42) strengthens the short-term bearish structure. The Supertrend indicator is also giving a bearish signal and highlighting the $0.42 resistance. Although RSI at 27.84 is in the oversold region, the MACD's negative histogram confirms that momentum favors sellers. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 13 strong levels were identified: 1D with 1 support/3 resistances, 3D with 3 supports/1 resistance, 1W with 3 supports/3 resistances. Overall, resistances dominate in the short term, and structural bearishness prevails.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

An uptrend (bullish structure) is defined by higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) – the price must make each new high and low higher than the previous levels. AERO currently lacks such a structure; the last swing high at $0.3627 was rejected, and the price pulled back below $0.36 with an LH formation. For potential bullish signals, the price needs to break $0.3627 with a daily close and form an HL. If this happens, it could continue toward the $0.5372 structural target with HH/HL. However, even though RSI is oversold, volume support is weak, and the EMA structure is bearish. Short-term bullish continuation looks weak.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend (bearish structure) is clear with LH/LL: The last swing low at $0.2580 (score 69/100) supports previous LLs. The price made an LH at $0.3627 and broke down, confirming bearish momentum as a CHoCH (Change of Character). A close below $0.2580 will bring new LLs and strengthen the bearish structure rather than invalidate it. MACD is bearish, and Supertrend resistance is at $0.42. As long as it stays below these levels, downtrend risk is high across altcoins – structural targets point bearish to -$0.0063 (theoretical), but a zeroing scenario should not be ignored in practice.

Break of Structure (BOS) Levels

Break of Structure (BOS) confirms trend changes. For a bullish BOS, the price must break the last swing high at $0.3627 (score 64/100) with strong volume – this invalidates the LH and triggers HL hunting. Moreover, if it surpasses the $0.42 EMA20 and Supertrend resistance, it opens the path to $0.5372. A bearish BOS occurs with the break of the $0.2580 swing low (score 69/100): This extends the current LL structure and invites new lows (to $0.20s). Other resistances are $0.6677 (61/100) and $0.9109 (63/100); even approaching them increases LH risk. BOS levels are critical for invalidating the structure – the current bearish structure remains valid below $0.3627.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

The last swing high at $0.3627 acts as resistance as the range upper band and LH. This level represents short-term sellers; a break triggers bullish BOS. Higher swings at $0.6677 and $0.9109 are long-term resistances – reaching them would signal a major trend change. However, the current $0.30 level is far from these highs, and rejection probability is high with bearish momentum. Swing highs should be monitored as potential short entry points.

Recent Swing Lows

The last swing low at $0.2580 is strong support (score 69/100) and the current LL. This level is buyers' last line of defense; if held, sideways action or HL chance exists. A break brings chain LLs with bearish BOS – MTF supports (3D/1W) are concentrated here. Swing lows are ideal for long positions, but risky in BTC context. The importance of $0.2580 lies in its potential to preserve the structure.

Bitcoin Correlation

Altcoins like AERO are highly correlated with BTC; BTC at $64,783 is in a downtrend with -%10.86 drop (Supertrend bearish). If BTC supports at $62,910/$60,000 break, selling pressure in altcoins increases – AERO tests $0.2580. If BTC resistances at $65,881/$71,041 are surpassed, relief may come, but in bearish dominance context, alts lag behind. If BTC stays below $62k, AERO's LH/LL deepens; BTC levels to watch directly impact the structure. Details for AERO Spot Analysis and AERO Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

The overall structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL downtrend is valid below the $0.3627 BOS level. If $0.2580 holds, consolidation is possible, but a break brings new lows. For bullish invalidation, a close above $0.3627+ and HH/HL are required. MTF shows resistance dominance, and despite oversold RSI, momentum favors sellers. Traders should monitor BOS levels – market structure is dynamic, be prepared for quick changes. Educational note: HH/HL defines uptrends, LH/LL defines downtrends; find trade edge with BOS/CHoCH.