NEAR Market Commentary: Critical Support Test in Downtrend on January 23, 2026

NEAR Protocol is stuck around 1.52 dollar levels, with a clear downtrend maintaining dominance on the daily chart. RSI at the 40 level giving neutral-bearish signals, upcoming critical support zones could determine the price's fate – a breakdown could bring new lows toward 0.92 dollars, while holding could carry reaction potential to 1.56 resistance.

Market Outlook and Current Situation

NEAR is trading at 1.52 dollars with a slight 0.65% decline over the last 24 hours. The narrow range movement between 1.50-1.54 on the daily timeframe, coupled with volume dropping to 88.44 million dollars, signals the market is in an uncertain consolidation phase. While the overall trend continues downward, the price failing to hold above the short-term EMA20 (1.63 dollars) also shows weakness on the weekly chart. According to multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence analysis, a total of 14 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, and 4S/3R distribution on 1W, highlighting a support-heavy picture, though bearish momentum could accelerate tests of these levels.

Pressure on altcoins across the market parallels Bitcoin's weak performance around 89 thousand dollars. NEAR's 15% loss over recent weeks is impacted by macro risks despite development activity in its ecosystem. Declining volume indicates limited speculative buying, so traders should prepare for low volatility in the spot market for NEAR Spot Analysis. Future catalysts are limited; there's no significant news flow, emphasizing that technical levels will remain in focus.

From a long-term perspective, NEAR's sharding technology and scalability promises remain strong, but the short-term downtrend is testing investor psychology. A drop below 1.50 could trigger panic selling, though MTF support confluences may signal base formation. Market participants should closely monitor these levels.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Support Zones

The strongest support level is at 1.4050 dollars (score: 72/100), standing out as the intersection of Fibonacci retracements and volume profiles on daily and weekly timeframes. This level is positioned near December swing lows and could encourage short-term reaction buying if held. Immediately above it, 1.4827 dollars (score: 66/100) serves as a secondary buffer; this zone aligns with the trendline on the 3D chart, providing additional confirmation. In case of a breakdown, deeper supports will come into play, leading to bearish targets.

The strength of support zones is evident in MTF analysis: four support levels on the 1W timeframe could brake excessive downside. Traders should look for volume spikes and candlestick patterns (e.g., hammer or doji) at these levels; they could be ideal long entry points for leveraged positions in NEAR Futures Analysis.

Resistance Barriers

The short-term first resistance is at 1.5603 dollars (score: 64/100), reinforcing the short-term bearish bias due to its proximity to EMA20. Above this, 1.6321 dollars (score: 61/100) coincides with the Supertrend indicator's dynamic resistance. Higher up, 1.8259 dollars (score: 61/100) acts as a strong R1 level on the weekly chart, potentially capping bear rallies. Resistance strength is moderate; breaking them in a bullish scenario would signal momentum shift.

Resistance tests align with the upper band of the current downtrend channel. High volume is required for a breakout; otherwise, rejections are likely.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

RSI (14) at 40.04 is hovering in the neutral-bearish zone without approaching oversold – no divergence, indicating the downtrend is continuing healthily. MACD shows a negative histogram and bearish crossover below the signal line, confirming momentum favors sellers. Price remaining below EMA20 (1.63 dollars) strengthens the short-term bearish structure, while the Supertrend indicator highlights 1.83 dollars resistance, awaiting a clear signal for trend change.

In other indicators, Stochastic %K line is near low levels around 20 but no crossover; ADX around 25 signals moderate trend strength. Bollinger Bands contraction may signal preparation for a volatility explosion. Overall, momentum is bearish-weighted, but RSI flattening offers hope for short-term recovery. On multi-timeframe, 1W Supertrend is bearish, making the long-term outlook negative.

Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook

In terms of risk/reward ratio, the bearish target at 0.9208 dollars (score:22) offers 40% downside potential from current price, while the bullish target at 2.2929 dollars (score:48) provides a more balanced R/R – however, low scores reflect scenario uncertainty. In continued downtrend, 1.4050 support is critical; a breakdown could trigger new lows and liquidity hunts. If held, reaction to the 1.56-1.63 range could lead to short-term short squeezes.

With low volatility, sudden BTC moves increase risk. Position sizes should be kept small, stop-losses placed below supports. In a positive scenario, ecosystem news could act as a catalyst, but the current technical picture mandates a cautious approach. Traders should prioritize confluence levels.

Bitcoin Correlation

NEAR shows high correlation with BTC among altcoins (%0.85+); BTC's downtrend at 89,229 dollars level is directly pressuring NEAR. BTC's main supports are at 88,269, 86,739, and 84,681 dollars; breaks below these could intensify selling pressure on altcoins and drag NEAR below 1.40. Conversely, breaks above BTC resistances at 89,422, 91,132, and 94,276 dollars could provide bullish momentum for NEAR, opening room toward 1.82.

BTC Supertrend bearish signal warns of general caution for altcoins: NEAR's independent movement room is limited. If BTC loses 88k support, liquidity hunts should be expected in NEAR; if held, relative strength opportunity may arise.