NEAR Technical Analysis February 18, 2026: Will it Rise or Fall?

NEAR Protocol ($NEAR) is consolidating in a narrow range ($1.03-$1.07) at the $1.05 level, with RSI at 37 approaching the oversold region but MACD showing a positive histogram; these conflicting signals make both a bullish breakout and bearish continuation possible.

Current Market Situation

NEAR is trading at $1.05 with a 0.19% decline over the last 24 hours, and the overall trend is downward. The price remains below EMA20 ($1.12), which is a short-term bearish signal. While RSI at 37.01 hovers near the oversold boundary, the positive histogram formation in MACD provides hope for recovery. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, and the $1.29 resistance level is prominent. Volume is at a moderate level of $90.22M, with low volatility. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 11 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 3 supports/4 resistances in 1D, 2S/2R in 3D, and 2S/3R balance in 1W. Critical supports: $1.0283 (67/100), $0.9760 (62/100), $0.8410 (61/100); resistances: $1.0677 (81/100), $1.1810 (66/100), $1.1234 (63/100). This structure indicates the price is vulnerable to a breakout in either direction – traders should monitor volume increases and candle closes.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

For the bullish scenario, a clear break above the $1.0677 resistance (81/100 strong) is required first – preferably with a daily close above on increasing volume. This breakout would trigger a test of EMA20 ($1.12) and be supported by MACD histogram expansion. RSI rising toward the 50 level provides momentum confirmation. The Supertrend flipping from bearish to bullish (above $1.29) adds further confirmation. In MTF, consecutive breaks of 1W timeframe resistances (e.g., $1.1810) would initiate a broader rally. Bitcoin approaching the $70,235 resistance could trigger rotation into altcoins. In this scenario, short position closures and long entries increase volume – watch for: bullish engulfing candles on the 4-hour chart and rising OBV.

Target Levels

First targets: $1.1234 and $1.1810 (fib 0.618 extension), followed by $1.29 Supertrend resistance. With strong momentum, $1.6031 is the main target (distant level with 30/100 score). Potential R/R ratio: 50%+ gain from $1.05 entry. Invalidation: daily close below $1.0283 – in this case, the scenario is invalidated and longs should be protected.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by rejection at the $1.0677 resistance – especially after a low-volume false breakout. Remaining below EMA20 and MACD histogram contraction/dipping below zero confirms momentum loss. If RSI drops below 30, selling pressure increases. While Supertrend remains bearish, BTC breaking the $65,483 support accelerates correlated downside in NEAR. In MTF, breaking 1D supports ($1.0283) creates a chain reaction. If volume spikes with downward candles, liquidity hunting begins – watch for: bearish divergences and declining volume profile.

Protection Levels

First protection after $1.0283 break: $0.9760, then $0.8410. Long-term target: $0.2984 (bottom with 22/100 score). For short positions, R/R: 70%+ downside potential from $1.05. Invalidation: close above $1.0677 – abandon the bearish view and tighten stop-losses.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Decision point: $1.0677 and $1.0283 levels – bullish dominance on upside break, bearish on downside. Volume increase (50%+ above 24h average) and candle closes (daily/4H) are critical for confirmation. RSI divergences and MACD crosses provide early warnings. If BTC dominance rises, risk increases for alts; the opposite brings rotation. Traders should manage risk using invalidation levels in each scenario – e.g., $1.0283 stop for longs, $1.0677 for shorts.

Bitcoin Correlation

NEAR has high correlation with BTC (0.85%+); BTC is in a downtrend at $68,165 with Supertrend bearish. If BTC breaks $65,483 support, NEAR tests $1.0283; drop to $62,910 pressures $0.9760. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $70,235 resistance, the NEAR bullish scenario strengthens – expect altcoin rally above $78,145. Monitor BTC dominance: rise suppresses alts, decline allows recovery for projects like NEAR. Key BTC levels: Supports $65,483/$62,910/$60,000; resistances $70,235/$78,145/$83,750.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

NEAR at a critical juncture: consolidation around $1.05 balances both scenarios – traders should stay prepared by monitoring levels, volume, and BTC. Follow daily closes, RSI/MACD updates, and the NEAR Spot Analysis and NEAR Futures Analysis pages. Risk management is priority: position size should not exceed 1-2%, use stop-loss in every scenario. Market is volatile; news flow (none currently) could trigger changes.