RARE: Rise or Fall? January 13, 2026 Scenario Analysis

RARE is currently experiencing a critical squeeze at the $0.02 level. Although the downtrend dominates, RSI at 42.78 is in the neutral zone and MACD shows a negative histogram, strong support and resistance levels across multiple timeframes (MTF) make both scenarios possible. This analysis provides a 'signals to watch' focused education to ensure traders are prepared for both directions.

Current Market Situation

RARE's current price is at the $0.02 level, trading with a slight -0.88% decline over the last 24 hours. The price range is narrow ($0.02 - $0.02) and volume is at a moderate $5.84M. The overall trend is downward; price is trading below EMA20 ($0.02) and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bear signal. RSI at 42.78 is not approaching oversold territory, neutral dominant. MACD continues with a negative histogram, momentum weak.

Critical levels are as follows: Supports $0.0223 (86/100 score, very strong), $0.0215 (66/100) and $0.0219 (64/100). Resistances $0.0227 (68/100). In MTF analysis, a total of 12 strong levels were identified across 1D (2S/3R), 3D (1S/2R), and 1W (2S/3R) timeframes. These levels indicate the price has breakout potential in both directions. No news flow, technically focused period.

The market can be followed in detail from the RARE Spot Analysis and RARE Futures Analysis pages.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Occur?

For the bullish scenario, the price needs to first break the $0.0227 resistance (68/100 score) with increased volume. This breakout should be confirmed by RSI rising above 50 and a bullish MACD crossover (histogram turning positive). Supertrend turning green and a close above EMA20 strengthens short-term momentum. In MTF, breaking the first of 3 resistances in the 1D timeframe is supported by holds at supports ($0.0223) in 3D and 1W.

Signals to watch: +20% volume increase, strong green close on 4-hour candle, and positive correlation in the overall crypto market (BTC dominance). This scenario can be triggered by recovery of the current neutral RSI; for example, a strong bounce from $0.0223 support. Invalidation criterion: If price loses the $0.0215 support (66/100), the bull scenario is canceled and bear dominance begins.

Target Levels

First target $0.0254 (28 score), this is the next resistance cluster in MTF. If continuation, levels from 1W timeframe can test $0.0270+. Risk/reward ratio (R/R), calculated from $0.0227 breakout, appears around 1:2 ($0.0215 stop-loss). Traders can confirm these targets by monitoring Fibonacci extensions and volume profiles.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by the price breaking the $0.0219 (64/100) or $0.0215 (66/100) supports downward. It is confirmed by MACD histogram deepening further, RSI falling below 30, and Supertrend maintaining its red signal. Persistent close below EMA20 and increased selling pressure in volume (+20% drop volume) strengthens bear momentum. In MTF, breakout of 2 supports in 1D aligns with pressure from 5 resistances in 3D/1W.

Risk factors to watch: Overall market weakness (BTC decline), sudden sells after low-volume squeeze, and testing/breaking of $0.0223 support (86/100, strongest). This scenario is closer given the current bearish MACD and downtrend. Invalidation criterion: If price breaks $0.0227 resistance (68/100), the bear scenario becomes invalid and the bull direction takes precedence.

Protection Levels

First protection level $0.0191 (28 score), this is the MTF support cluster. If continuation, around $0.0175 can be tested. R/R ratio, from $0.0215 breakout, close to 1:2 ($0.0223 invalidation). Traders should track these levels using pivot points and volume delta; for example, negative volume divergence can accelerate the downside.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Decision-making triggers are clear: For bulls, close above $0.0227 + RSI>50 + volume increase; for bears, break below $0.0215 + MACD deepening + selling volume. Confirmation signals include 4H/1D candle closes, MTF alignment, and overall market sentiment. In both scenarios, invalidation levels are critical: Below $0.0215 for bulls, above $0.0227 for bears. Traders can catch early signals by monitoring level clusters across multiple timeframes (1D/3D/1W). Volume and momentum divergences (RSI/MACD) are forefront in direction determination.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

RARE's squeeze around $0.02 offers traders preparation opportunities for both scenarios. Bull scenario possible with momentum recovery, bear scenario with continuation of current trend. Monitoring points: $0.0227 (bull breakout), $0.0215/$0.0219 (bear breakout), RSI 50 crossover, MACD crossovers, and volume spikes. Regularly check MTF levels (total 12 strong points) and support/resistance scores (like 86/100). This analysis is for educational purposes to develop your own decisions; let it help you understand market dynamics.

Spot and Futures Tracking: Visit the RARE Spot and RARE Futures pages for details.