SAND Technical Analysis February 28, 2026: Will It Rise or Fall?

SAND is stuck in a critical contraction zone at the $0.08 level; despite the short-term downtrend, with MACD positive histogram and RSI 38.91 approaching oversold, both upside breakout and downside breakout scenarios carry equal probability.

Current Market Situation

SAND/USD is trading at the $0.08 level with a 5.79% drop in the last 24 hours and is stuck in a narrow $0.08-$0.09 range. Volume remains at a moderate $24.28M level, while the overall trend continues downward. Technical indicators show mixed signals: RSI(14) at 38.91 shows recovery potential in the neutral-oversold zone, while the MACD positive histogram formation is a bullish sign. Price is trading below EMA20 ($0.09), maintaining the short-term bearish structure, and the Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal, with $0.10 resistance being critical. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 12 strong levels were detected across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 1D has 2 supports/2 resistances, 3D has 1 support/2 resistances, 1W has 3 supports/3 resistances in a balanced distribution, reflecting market indecision. Critical supports are $0.0719 (strength score 68/100) and $0.0766 (64/100); resistances are $0.0836 (70/100) and $0.1238 (64/100). These levels will determine the scenarios.

Scenario 1: Upside Scenario

How Does This Scenario Occur?

For the upside scenario, a clear breakout and close above the $0.0836 resistance (strength 70/100) is required first. If this breakout is supported by increased volume (above current $24M), momentum builds toward EMA20 ($0.09) and Supertrend resistance at $0.10. RSI moving above 50 and MACD histogram expansion would confirm momentum. In MTF, movement aligned with upper resistances in the 1W timeframe (e.g., $0.1238) completes the bullish formation in 3D. Bitcoin testing the $66,299 resistance could trigger an altcoin rally. A quick R:R (risk-reward) ratio forms post-breakout; invalidation is a close below the $0.0766 support, which would invalidate the bullish scenario. Watch for: strong green daily candle close and volume spike.

Target Levels

First target $0.1136 (score 13/100, short-term extension), followed by testing the $0.1238 resistance. With stronger momentum, 1W targets could extend to $0.15+ levels, around the Fibonacci extension 161.8% level. These targets should be monitored in stages based on breakout strength; review profit-taking strategies at each step.

Scenario 2: Downside Scenario

Risk Factors

The downside scenario is triggered by a close below the $0.0766 support (score 64/100); this strengthens short-term EMA20 and Supertrend bearish signals. If RSI drops below 30, it shifts from oversold to overextension, and if the MACD histogram turns negative, momentum becomes bearish. Increased volume (especially selling volume) combined with BTC breaking the $64,258 support would create chain reaction selling pressure in altcoins. In MTF, 1D/3D support breaks accelerate descent to 1W's 3 strong supports. Risk factors include sudden dump after low-volume consolidation and general market fear (fear index rise). Invalidation: close above $0.0836, which disproves the bearish scenario. Watch for: daily red candle and volume increase.

Protection Levels

First protection $0.0719 (score 68/100), if broken, main target $0.0410 (score 22/100, major support). In deeper correction, levels below $0.05 are monitored, according to Fibonacci retracement 61.8%. These levels are critical for position stop-losses; re-evaluate on each break.

Which Scenario to Watch?

The decision point is between $0.0836 resistance and $0.0766 support; watch for volume + RSI >50 on upside, volume + RSI <35 on downside. MACD crossovers and Supertrend flip provide confirmation signals. BTC movement is decisive: above $66K favors bulls, below $64K favors bears. Daily/4H closes and volume profile clarify scenario separation. Do not violate invalidation levels in either direction; focus on early signals.

Bitcoin Correlation

SAND is a highly correlated altcoin to BTC; BTC is in a downtrend at $65,145 with a 0.66% drop and Supertrend bearish. If BTC holds the $64,258 support, SAND could recover, but a break below $62,510 would trigger altcoin selling. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $66,299 resistance, SAND's $0.0836 breakout accelerates. Rising BTC dominance keeps SAND under pressure; BTC levels to watch: Supports $64,258/$62,510/$60,000; Resistances $66,299/$68,195/$70,615. SAND traders should monitor the BTC chart in parallel.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

SAND balance is delicate; the breakout direction around $0.08 will be decisive. Monitoring points: $0.0836/$0.0766 levels, volume changes, RSI/MACD divergences, and BTC correlation. For detailed review, visit the SAND Spot Analysis and SAND Futures Analysis pages. Make your own analysis and continuously track market dynamics.