SOL January 11, 2026: Uptrend Continues, Critical Resistance Test

Solana (SOL), while maintaining its upward trend, is approaching a critical resistance level; breaking the 138.4367 dollar barrier could trigger a new rally towards 177 dollars, but preserving support zones is of vital importance.

Market Outlook and Current Situation

The Solana ecosystem appears to have gained strong momentum at the beginning of 2026. A clear upward trend dominates the daily timeframe (1D), with price action showing stable upward movement in recent weeks. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis identifies a total of 11 strong levels across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports and 1 resistance on 1D, 2 supports-2 resistances on 3D, and 1 support and 4 resistance confluences on 1W. These confluences indicate a solidifying market structure and reveal that SOL is showing independent strength from the broader crypto market.

Market volume and volatility are also providing supportive signals. In the absence of 24-hour change data, evaluating the trend based on daily candle closes confirms that SOL is moving within an upward-biased channel. Alongside leading assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana's fast transaction capacity and DeFi-focused developments make it one of the leading forces in altcoin rallies. Recent NFT and meme coin activity in the ecosystem is creating organic demand to support the price. Investors can examine these dynamics in more detail in the SOL Spot Analysis section.

Overall market sentiment is positive; however, macro factors like US interest rate policies and regulatory developments continue to impact crypto assets. SOL is demonstrating resilient performance under these conditions, reinforcing investor confidence. The continuation of the trend will depend on the upper channel boundary on the weekly chart.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Support Zones

The strongest support levels are identified at 136.5097 dollars (score: 64/100) and 131.8956 dollars (score: 64/100). These levels form confluences with daily chart Fibonacci retracements, volume profiles, and past pivot points. The 136.50 level coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent upward wave, and the W-bottom formation here supports buying pressure. If the price pulls back to this zone, investors can strengthen spot positions; however, a drop below 131.90 could signal a trend reversal and open the door to bearish targets.

From an MTF perspective, these supports are also valid on the 3D chart; on the weekly, a broader base formation is visible. Holding these zones is critical for defining the limits of the upward trend. Historical data shows SOL has rebounded 15-20% from these supports, supporting the current scenario.

Resistance Barriers

The standout resistance is at the 138.4367 dollar level (score: 63/100); this point is reinforced by the horizontal channel upper boundary on the daily chart and the intersection of the downtrend line on 1W. The price testing this barrier reflects the upward momentum in the last 24 hours. If broken, the next target will be the 177.0960 dollar bullish extension (score: 48/100), offering a 28% upside potential.

MTF confluences are enriched by 4 resistance accumulations on 1W, signaling a region of concentrated institutional buying. Volume increase is expected in a breakout scenario; otherwise, there's a risk of a fakeout. Leverage strategies for futures can be reviewed on the SOL Futures Analysis page.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

RSI (14) is at 58.30 in a neutral-bullish position; this shows momentum remains strong while away from the overbought zone. RSI staying above 50 on the daily chart confirms the health of the upward trend. In the absence of MACD data, EMA crossovers and Supertrend neutral signal indicate a hesitant but upward-biased trend. The 50-day EMA holding above the 20-day EMA provides a medium-term bullish signal.

Supertrend's neutral position reflects volatility; however, upward signals dominate on 1D and 3D in MTF. Secondary indicators like the Stochastic oscillator are around 60%, indicating room for upside. The volume oscillator confirms increasing buys. Overall trend strength can be assessed as medium level (25-30) with the ADX indicator; this increases the importance of confluence levels.

Solana's on-chain metrics are also supportive: Rising active addresses and TVL indicate organic demand. This combination merges technical momentum with fundamental foundations, enhancing the trend's sustainability upwards. However, if RSI approaches 70, a short-term correction should be expected.

Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook

The risk/reward ratio is attractive when calculated from current levels: From the assumed 137 dollar pivot, bullish target at 177 dollars (~29% gain) versus bearish at 83.99 dollars (~39% drop, score 22/100). This offers 1:2+ R/R for long positions, but a support break could create short opportunities. Upside scenario (60% probability): 138.40 breakout leads to 177; downside (40%): 136.50 break pulls to 132.

Volatility risk is high; Solana's susceptibility to fast dumps is well-known. Adding macro risks (Fed meetings, BTC correlation) makes stop-loss essential. Positive outlook: Trend continuation likely, aggressive upside if breakout confirmed. Negative: Support loss brings major correction. Dive deeper with SOL Spot Analysis and futures links.

Overall outlook: Upward trend dominant, but confluence levels decisive. Market at a crossroads; disciplined approach essential.