SOL Technical Analysis February 9, 2026: Market Structure

SOL continues to exhibit a downtrend among altcoins; with the LH/LL structure dominant, a critical support test is occurring at the $87 level. A BOS above $93.53 is necessary to break the structure, otherwise downside targets remain open.

Market Structure Overview

SOL's current market structure reflects a clear downtrend. The price features an LH/LL structure characterized by lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) formed in recent weeks. This indicates the breakdown of the uptrend (HH/HL) and dominance of bearish momentum. Supertrend is giving a bearish signal and the price remains below EMA20 ($104.73), negativizing the short-term structure. Although RSI is at the 30.24 level close to the oversold region, the MACD's negative histogram supports the downward momentum. In the MTF structure (1D/3D/1W), 9 strong levels were detected: 3 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/3 resistances on 3D, and 1 support/3 resistances on 1W, presenting an overall resistance-weighted outlook. This increases the obstacles SOL will face in upward movements and signals the continuation of the downtrend.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, an HH/HL structure is necessary; however, no such pattern has been observed recently. Bullish continuation is not possible without breaking the last swing high at $93.5288 (score:74/100). If it holds above the $87.0425 swing low and RSI divergence forms (not present yet), an HH formation toward $113.9627 could begin. However, with the current price at $87.61, these signals are absent; bullish hopes depend on the $93.53 BOS. The 24-hour +0.67% increase is weak and remains speculative as long as it stays within the range ($82.86-$89.08).

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is confirmed with LH/LL: An LH formed below the last swing high at $93.53, with swing lows $87.04 → $79.15 → $67.50 forming a clear LL pattern. In this structure, the price preserves its bearish character by closing every rally lower than previous highs. MACD is bearish and Supertrend resistance is at $110.87; a break of $87.04 triggers CHoCH and opens the path to $79. The abundance of resistance in MTF ($113+ levels) can suppress buying rallies.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS levels are the key to trend change. Bullish BOS: Break of the $93.5288 swing high (score:74), followed by HH/HL confirmation extending to $113.9627, turning the structure bullish. This is confirmed by passing EMA20 ($104.73); target $142.7662 (score:52). Bearish BOS: Break of the $87.0425 swing low (score:70), deepening LL and opening targets $79.1543 → $67.50. CHoCH bearish formed with a close below $93.53; a break of $87 confirms trend continuation. These levels are critical for structure invalidation – the trend does not change without BOS.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

The most critical swing high at $93.5288 (score:74/100) defines the last LH and acts as resistance for bullish BOS. Rallies are temporary without breaking this level; $113.9627 (score:64) is the upper target resistance, aligned with 3D/1W in MTF. These points are areas where selling pressure accumulates in the downtrend – short positions are safe without a breakout.

Recent Swing Lows

Swing lows form a support chain: $87.0425 (score:70, current test), $79.1543 (score:66), and $67.5000 (score:66). These LLs support the bearish structure; a break of $87 triggers a cascade. These levels are critical before buying – if it holds, a range is possible; a break accelerates the downside. There are 3 supports on 1D, but the resistance-weighted MTF raises risk.

Bitcoin Correlation

SOL is highly correlated with BTC (generally 0.8%+); BTC at $70,435 (-0.46%) in a downtrend, Supertrend bearish. BTC supports at $69,957 / $65,843 / $60,000 – a break pushes SOL below $79. A BTC rally above resistance at $72,183 could trigger SOL $93 BOS, but rising BTC dominance crushes altcoins. SOL bullish is difficult without BTC above $78,597; to watch: SOL $87 test becomes critical if BTC below $70k. Details for SOL Spot Analysis and SOL Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

SOL structure is bearish with LH/LL; if $87.04 does not hold, $79/$67 targets are open, no reversal without $93.53 BOS. MTF resistance and BTC downside increase downside risk. Structure analysis shows probabilities: Bearish continuation (high probability), BOS required for bullish. RSI oversold bounce is possible but unstructured – patience and level confirmation are essential. Market is volatile; monitor the structure for spot or futures.