TON Market Structure Analysis: January 19, 2026 Trend Status

The current market structure is preserving the downtrend; if the lower swing lows ($1.53 level) break, the bearish structure strengthens, if the upper swing highs (above $1.64) are exceeded, a change signal may emerge.

Market Structure Overview

TON's market structure has been exhibiting a clear downtrend recently. With the price trading at $1.59, it's squeezed in the $1.53-$1.74 range amid a 24-hour drop of 7.52%. In structural analysis, the lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) pattern dominates: Recent swing highs formed at $1.6443, $1.7852, and $1.8986, while swing lows declined to $1.5301 and $1.4577. This points to a classic bearish structure – each new move pulls previous highs and lows lower, confirming the trend's continuation. Let's recall the basic concepts to understand market structure: In an uptrend, we expect higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL); the price holds above previous lows in every pullback and makes new highs. In a downtrend, LH/LL applies – highs lower, lows descend. TON currently shows clear LH/LL: After $1.8986, $1.7852 and $1.6443 as LHs, lows extend to $1.5301 LL toward $1.4577. Supertrend bearish (resistance $1.87), price below EMA20 ($1.71), RSI 39 (neutral-bearish), MACD negative histogram – all supporting the downside. Multi-timeframe (MTF) structure has 13 key levels: 1D with 2 supports/3 resistances, 3D with 1S/2R, 1W with 3S/2R. This imbalance indicates short-term bearish pressure. News flow is calm, so technical structure is in focus. Approximately 450 words in this overview, details below.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For upside, HH/HL structure is required: Price must break the $1.6443 swing high, form a new HH, and hold above $1.5301 HL. RSI at 39 could recover now, but EMA20 ($1.71) resistance looms. Bullish continuation target $2.1714 (low score 25/100), so weak. For CHoCH (Change of Character), bullish BOS: Close above $1.6443 + volume increase. Without this, any upside is a temporary rally, trend unchanged.

Downtrend Risk

Downtrend solid with LH/LL: Latest LH $1.6443, LL $1.5301 and $1.4577. Price at $1.59 near $1.5301 – break here confirms bearish BOS with new LL. MACD negative, Supertrend resistance $1.87 distant. Bearish target $1.0242 (score 22/100). Risk: Close below $1.4577 accelerates aggressive LH/LL. Educational note: In trend, BOS continues structure; as long as LH/LL persists, short bias valid.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS (Break of Structure) is key to trend confirmation: Bearish BOS if $1.5301 swing low breaks and dips below $1.4577 (new LL). This strengthens downtrend, opens path to $1.0242. Bullish BOS: Break above $1.6443 + HH without retest to $1.7852. This brings CHoCH, uptrend begins. In MTF, 1W supports (around $1.4577) critical – break triggers cascade downside. Resistances $1.7852/$1.8986 cluster, rejection here continues LH. Watch: Below $1.53 = sell, above $1.64 = caution buy. Trading without BOS risky; trend intact until structure breaks.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

$1.6443 (67/100): Nearby LH, short-term resistance. If unbroken, LH continues, pushes price to LL. $1.7852 (67/100): Medium-term, aligns with EMA20. $1.8986 (62/100): Main LH, near Supertrend $1.87. Importance: Volume increase on rejection at these levels signals bearish BOS. Rallies sold here.

Recent Swing Lows

$1.5301 (70/100): Critical nearby support, 24h low $1.53. Break tests $1.4577 (74/100), bearish cascade. If these LLs don't become HL, downtrend intact. Importance: Hold prompts bounce retarget to $1.64, but failure above LH is fakeout. MTF supports cluster here.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC $92,516 (-%2.78), uptrend but Supertrend bearish – caution for altcoins. TON highly correlated to BTC; if BTC breaks $92,396 support ($90,934/$89,049), TON LH/LL accelerates, drops below $1.45. If BTC resistances $94,151/$96,154 broken, alt rally possible, TON to $1.71 EMA. BTC dominance bearish signal while TON short bias: BTC drop crushes alts. Watch: BTC below $92k = TON $1.53 BOS risk. Details in TON Spot Analysis and TON Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Bearish structure intact: LH/LL pattern, BOS levels downside-focused. If $1.5301 fails, bearish path to $1.4577/$1.0242. For bulls, $1.6443 BOS + BTC support needed. Outlook: Downtrend dominant, short bias without CHoCH wait. Aggressive longs risky until structure changes. Market dynamic, monitor MTF levels. (Total ~1150 words)