TRX Market Commentary: Critical Support Test in Downtrend on January 31, 2026

TRX is stuck around 0.29 dollar levels while the daily downtrend maintains its dominance; with RSI at 37.52 approaching the oversold region, Bitcoin's sharp %7.23 losses are increasing pressure on altcoins, and a turning point is being sought at critical supports.

Market Outlook and Current Situation

The TRX powering the Tron network has lost %2.89 value in the last 24 hours, retreating to around 0.29 dollars. A clear downtrend is observed in the daily timeframe; 24-hour trading volume came in at 184.37 million dollars, while volatility remained limited in the low range ($0.28-$0.29). This situation reflects market participants' risk aversion and signals the spillover of the Bitcoin-focused selling wave in the broader crypto ecosystem to altcoins. TRX trading below its short-term EMA20 (0.30 dollars) reinforces bearish momentum, while the broader picture on the weekly chart highlights consolidation between the 0.27-0.31 band.

Looking at multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, a total of 10 strong levels are identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 3 supports and 4 resistances on 1D, 2 supports-1 resistance on 3D, and 4 supports-2 resistances on 1W. This distribution indicates dominance of the downward bias, though strong support scores (e.g., 84/100 at 0.2817) point to potential base formation. Decreasing volume suggests selling pressure is starting to fatigue, while spot market liquidity, trackable from TRX Spot Analysis pages, limits short-term recovery potential.

In the overall market context, TRX's strength in DeFi and stablecoin integrations preserves its long-term value, but current macro pressures (Fed rate expectations and geopolitical tensions) may delay an altcoin rally. The bearish Supertrend signal on daily charts (resistance at 0.31 dollars) requires a clear breakout for a trend reversal.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Support Zones

The most critical support is positioned at 0.2817 dollars (score: 84/100), where confluence from 1D and 1W timeframes forms a strong base. This level successfully defended low-volume tests in recent weeks and aligns with the Fibonacci retracement 0.618 level. In case of breach, the next target is 0.2766 dollars (71/100), which overlaps with the EMA50 on the 3D chart, and a broader correction could activate 0.2706 dollars (62/100). This support chain supports a potential bottom-hunting scenario in TRX's current downtrend; however, sustainable recovery looks difficult without volume increase.

Resistance Barriers

The short-term first hurdle is at 0.2898 dollars (81/100), functioning as an immediate pivot and 1% above daily highs. A breakout could open the path to 0.2956 dollars (76/100) EMA20; this level coincides with Supertrend resistance. The stronger barrier is at 0.3018 dollars (72/100), near the 200-day SMA on the weekly chart and the peak of MTF resistance confluence. Breaking these levels could trigger liquidity hunt opportunities for TRX Futures Analysis, but probability remains low under the current bearish bias.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

RSI at 37.52 is hovering in the bearish zone without dipping below 30, approaching an oversold signal; this could set the stage for a short-term momentum bounce but lacks divergence. The MACD histogram is expanding in negative territory, confirming the bearish crossover, with trading below the signal line validating trend strength. The EMA hierarchy is disrupted: Price below EMA20 (0.30), approaching EMA50 (0.295), and EMA200 (around 0.28) in support role. Supertrend in bearish mode draws 0.31 resistance, with ADX above 25 holding trend strength at moderate levels.

From an MTF perspective, 3D RSI at 42 is more neutral, while 1W MACD shows slight positive divergence; this implies the daily decline could be a correction within the weekly uptrend. Stochastic oscillator signals oversold at %20s, while volume oscillators exhibit contraction consistent with the decline. Overall, momentum is bearish but exhaustion signals (RSI bottom divergence potential) offer a balanced outlook.

Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook

The risk/reward profile calculated from current 0.29 dollars is unbalanced: Bullish target at 0.3347 (score 44/100, ~%15.4 upside) is low probability, while bearish at 0.2395 (score 4/100, ~%17.4 downside) appears more likely. R/R ratio around 1:1, but underweighted due to BTC correlation. In a positive scenario, a 0.2898 breakout could test 0.30; in negative, loss of 0.2817 could lead to 0.27. With low volatility (ATR %3), stay alert for sudden volume spikes.

Trading outlook is cautious: Long scalping on support hold, short opportunities on resistance rejection. For long-term holders, 0.27 base is a buy zone; speculators should monitor TRX spot market liquidity. Risk management is critical; stop-losses below supports, take-profits at resistances. While market remains neutral-bearish, news flow (Tron ecosystem updates) could act as a catalyst.

Bitcoin Correlation

Bitcoin experienced a %7.23 drop to 78,040 dollars with a bearish Supertrend signal; this pushes correlation for altcoins like TRX to %0.85, amplifying selling pressure. BTC's main supports at 75,720, 64,655, and 58,878 dollars; loss of 75,720 could drag TRX to 0.27, while descent to 64,655 might trigger 0.24 bear target. Conversely, if BTC breaks resistances at 79,044, 85,199, and 91,260, TRX could recover, paving the way for a test above 0.30. BTC's downtrend delays altcoin rotation, making BTC stabilization essential for TRX's independent rally.