Will ZEC Rise or Fall? January 22, 2026 Scenario Analysis

ZEC is positioned at a critical juncture at the $354.99 level. Although the downtrend dominates, oversold signals in RSI and potential recovery in BTC make both bullish and bearish scenarios possible; traders should be prepared for both directions.

Current Market Status

ZEC is trading at $354.99 with a 0.69% decline over the last 24 hours. The daily range was between $351.44 - $375.98, while volume remained relatively high at $788.65M. The overall trend is downward; the price is trading below EMA20 ($406.23) and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, keeping it under pressure from the $463.54 resistance. RSI is at 36.57, near the oversold zone, and the MACD histogram is negative, showing bearish momentum. 16 strong levels have been identified across multiple timeframes (1D/3D/1W): 3 supports/4 resistances on 1D, 2 supports/1 resistance on 3D, and 3 supports/3 resistances balance on 1W. This structure has the potential to determine a clear direction based on the breakout. There are no ZEC-specific breaking news in the market, but the general crypto sentiment is tied to BTC movements.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Occur?

For the bullish scenario, the $355.59 and $375.98 resistances must first be broken. Closing above these levels could reverse the short-term bearish momentum. The oversold condition in RSI (36.57) is setting the stage for a bounce; the MACD histogram approaching the zero line and turning positive could provide confirmation. If Supertrend flips to bullish (above $463.54) and EMA20 ($406.23) is surpassed, momentum will increase. An upward volume surge and BTC breaking the $91,034 resistance will create a chain reaction in ZEC. This scenario remains valid as long as the $348.81 support holds; a close below invalidates the upside. Traders should monitor the $402.08 resistance – this is the pivot point.

Target Levels

First target $402.08 (score 69/100), followed by $463.54 Supertrend resistance. In strong momentum, $617.14 is the main target (score 25/100). This level aligns with strong Fibonacci extension on the 1W timeframe. The risk/reward ratio could be attractive for entries with a $348.81 stop-loss, but don't ignore volatility. Bullish invalidation: daily close below $348.81.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by the break of the $348.81 support. This level (score 71/100) is highly significant; a close below accelerates distance from EMA20 and strengthens the Supertrend bearish signal. If the negative MACD histogram expands, momentum increases, and RSI drops below 30. BTC breaking the $89,070 support (continuation of BTC downtrend) creates correlated selling pressure in ZEC. Downward volume spikes and general altcoin weakness increase risks. This scenario remains valid with rejection at $402.08 resistance; a close above invalidates the downside.

Protection Levels

First protection $307.50 (score 62/100), followed by $187.02 (score 60/100). Long-term bearish target $45.42 (score 16/100), aligned with deep correction from 1W supports. For risk management, monitor hold above $348.81. Bearish invalidation: daily close above $375.98 and break of $402.08.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Key triggers: For bullish, $355.59/$375.98 breakout + volume increase + RSI >50; for bearish, $348.81 breakout + MACD negative expansion. Confirmation signals: Daily/4H closes, Supertrend flip, and EMA20 interaction. BTC movements are decisive; above $91k supports ZEC bull, below $89k supports bear. Follow with additional data from ZEC Spot Analysis and ZEC Futures Analysis pages. Volatility is high in both scenarios; adjust position sizes.

Bitcoin Correlation

ZEC shows high correlation with BTC (general altcoin dynamic). Although BTC is at $90,175 with +0.63% showing slight recovery, the downtrend dominates; Supertrend bearish. If BTC supports at $89,070/$87,264/$84,681 break, expect sharp drop in ZEC, accelerating test of $348.81. Conversely, if BTC surpasses $91,034/$92,483 resistances, it triggers ZEC bullish scenario, paving way to $402. BTC dominance increase pressures altcoins; traders should prioritize monitoring BTC.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

ZEC's contraction between $348.81-$375.98 signals a major breakout. Monitoring points: $355.59 (bull trigger), $348.81 (bear trigger), RSI/MACD divergences, BTC $89k-$91k range. Use invalidation levels in every scenario, avoid emotional decisions. This analysis complements your own research; the market is dynamic, follow updates. Links for ZEC Spot and Futures here.