Bitcoin April Rally: Speculative Warning

Bitcoin's 20% Surge in April

Bitcoin surged 20% in April, climbing from $66,000 to $79,000, but according to CryptoQuant data, this movement stands out as a speculative rally. On-chain analyses reveal that the price was pushed solely by demand for BTC futures; spot market demand remained negative throughout the entire month. Julio Moreno, the chief researcher at the research firm, emphasizes in his report that this structure relies on leveraged positions and lacks real Bitcoin accumulation. Experts note that the dominance of futures flows amid weak spot demand makes the rally fragile. The probability of a correction is rising as a natural result of this imbalance.

Futures Demand Overwhelmed the Spot Market

Speculative dynamics are clear in BTC detailed analysis data: Perpetual futures demand drove the rally while spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) remained negative. This divergence indicates that investors are placing short-term bets with leveraged positions. The absence of real HODLers confirms the price rose without fundamentals. Moreno notes that bloated futures open interest increases unwind risk.

Similarity to the 2022 Bear Market

Names like CryptoQuant and Julio Moreno are likening the current demand divergence to the pattern at the start of the 2022 bear market. Back then, futures-driven rises reversed without spot support. Moreno reminds that prices typically declined with the unwinding of futures positions; new highs cannot be sustainable unless spot demand turns positive. Analyses show that such structures remain unsustainable in bear markets and indicate the current situation carries similar risks. The company warns investors by clarifying that the April rally lacks a structural foundation.

CryptoQuant Bull Score Index Decline

The CryptoQuant Bull Score Index fell from 50 to 40 in April, dropping below the neutral level and confirming bearish conditions. This decline verifies that on-chain fundamentals weakened after the speculative futures rally. The index combines market indicators on a 0-100 scale, classifying above 50 as bull and below as bear. Bitcoin is currently trading sideways around $78,500; without a revival in spot demand in the sector, new breakouts will struggle to find support.