- The Bitcoin indicator that successfully predicted the bottom point of the 2022 bear market says that the upward trend is still continuing.
- Currently, coin groups that moved three to six months ago are on the rise – this is a common occurrence at the beginning of previous bull markets for Bitcoin.
- In December 2022, when BTC/USD hovered around the two-year low levels of $15,600, the Swift metric declared the end of the “excitement” among the “tourists,” the speculative investor group of Bitcoin, using the Bitcoin’s speculative investor group metric.
The fluctuations in Bitcoin price may have increased investor behaviors and concerns, but a recent analysis reveals that the bullish outlook in Bitcoin is not over yet.
The Upward Trend in Bitcoin is Not Over
The Bitcoin indicator that successfully predicted the bottom point of the 2022 bear market says that the upward trend is still continuing. The creator of the on-chain analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin shared some good news about Bitcoin’s Realized Market HODL Waves (RHODL) in a post published on August 22.
The 10% BTC price drop of the past week may have disrupted part of the on-chain landscape, but RHODL remains one of the metrics that provides a long-term view of a timely bull market.
This metric takes the current HODL Waves data, groups the BTC supply based on when each coin or specifically unspent transaction output (UTXO) last moved, and weights it by the realized price – the price at which it last moved.
As explained by Philip Swift in an introduction on LookIntoBitcoin, “Peaks in younger age groups highlight periods when they have a proportionally higher Realized Value weight compared to older Realized Value age groups. It is important to note this because it shows that the market is willing to pay higher values for Bitcoin today and recently compared to historical norms for Bitcoin. This can be a good indicator that the market may be overheated.”
Currently, coin groups that moved three to six months ago are on the rise – this is a common occurrence at the beginning of previous bull markets for Bitcoin. When discussing the August drop in BTC/USD, Swift stated that “the recent price drop is within the context of a much larger bull trend” and summarized it as “3-6 month band of upward trend when new money comes into the market = new bull cycle.”
The Return of Excitement in BTC Price
RHODL has an impressive record regarding BTC price stages. In December 2022, when BTC/USD hovered around the two-year low levels of $15,600, Swift used the metric to declare the end of the “excitement” among the “tourists,” the speculative investor group of Bitcoin. At that time, he noted that the market was likely at cycle lows and that this represented the highest risk-reward opportunity.
In January of this year, Bitcoin initiated a new upward trend by delivering a 70% gain in just the first quarter. Since then, investor movements have changed, with short-term holders (STHs) – assets holding BTC for 155 days or less – reducing their overall exposure by reaching the lowest level since November 2021.
However, the recent drop has increased pressure on the remaining speculators, with almost 90% of STH funds now held at an unrealized loss level.
