- Bitcoin has shown a notable bearish trend on both the weekly and 3-day price charts.
- Technical indicators present a mixed outlook, with a higher likelihood of prices declining rather than rallying.
- BTC surged after hitting the $64k liquidity zone but the sustainability of this surge remains uncertain.
Stay updated with the latest Bitcoin trends and forecasts as bearish signals dominate despite recent upticks.
Bearish Market Structure Indicates Potential Reversal
On the 3-day price chart, Bitcoin displayed a clear break in the bearish structure with a session close below $56.5k on July 5th. A crucial resistance level at $72k remains unchallenged. Earlier analysis suggests that the $69k liquidity zone is critical, with potential for a bearish reversal.
Mixed Signals from Technical Indicators
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 3-day chart stood at 56, indicating a shift towards bullish momentum. However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) was at +0.01, signaling weak capital inflows. Unless BTC breaks the $72k level, the overall bias remains bearish.
Speculative Interests and Market Sentiment
Recent data from Coinalyze shows an increase in Open Interest, reflecting strong short-term bullish sentiment among speculators following the price rebound from $64k. Despite this, the spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) failed to form an uptrend, pointing to weak buying pressure and supporting the likelihood of a bearish reversal.
Short-Term Holder Behavior and Potential Profit-Taking
The 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio was at 7.6%, indicating that short-term holders are currently in profit. An upward trend in MVRV could lead to selling pressure as market participants might opt for profit-taking. Despite the price drop, the 90-day Mean Coin Age (MCA) has remained steady, signifying that long-term holders are not ready to sell, suggesting the potential for continued bullish trends.
Outlook: Key Levels and Market Dynamics
Combining these signals, it is plausible that Bitcoin might experience a reversal around the $69k zone. A decline in MCA would support this hypothesis. Conversely, if the MCA and spot CVD start to rise significantly, it would indicate that BTC bulls might have enough momentum to push past the $69k threshold.
Conclusion
In summary, while there is a current bearish market structure, several key indicators provide mixed signals. Short-term bullish sentiment is evident, yet consistent buying pressure is lacking. Investors should watch critical resistance levels and market inflows closely to gauge BTC’s future trajectory.
