Bitcoin Could Dip Toward $107k Amid LTH Profit‑Taking and ETF Outflows; Rebound to $111k Possible if Short‑Term Holders Absorb Supply

• Long-term holders realized 3.4M BTC in profit, increasing selling pressure.

• ETF netflows shifted from +2.6k BTC/day to near-zero and recent daily outflows, weakening institutional demand.

• Market balance: if short-term holders absorb selling, BTC can rebound toward the STH cost basis (~$111k).

Bitcoin sell-off: Bitcoin price drops as long-term holders realize 3.4M BTC in profit and ETF demand collapses. Read COINOTAG’s analysis and recovery scenarios.

Why is Bitcoin under intense selling pressure right now?

Bitcoin price is declining primarily because long-term holders (LTHs) have taken substantial profits while U.S. spot ETF demand has cooled sharply, removing a major source of buying pressure. Short-term demand must absorb these sales for a sustained rebound.

How much profit did long-term holders realize and what does it mean?

Data referenced from Glassnode shows LTH realized profits reached approximately 3.4M BTC this cycle, with 63.8k BTC realized since the recent FOMC decision. This elevated realization level signals cohort maturity and active capital rotation, increasing near-term sell-side pressure.

How did price move after the FOMC meeting?

After a 25 bps cut signaled at the FOMC, Bitcoin briefly rallied toward ~$117k but then corrected. The market shifted from rally to downtrend as LTH profit-taking intensified and ETF netflows reversed into outflows, pressuring the price to a three-week low near $108.6k.

How much have ETF inflows changed and why does that matter?

According to on-chain analytics (Glassnode), U.S. spot ETF netflows (7D-SMA) plunged from ~2.6k BTC/day to nearly zero; daily netflow was -2.24k BTC at press time. The collapse of ETF demand removes a major institutional buyer, amplifying downside risk when combined with LTH selling.

What technical and market scenarios could follow this sell-off?

If selling continues and short-term liquidity fails to absorb supply, Bitcoin risks a dip to $107,314. Conversely, if short-term holders (STHs) and spot buyers absorb supply, BTC could recover toward the STH cost basis near $111k. Monitor netflows and realized-profit metrics for signal changes.

Bitcoin LTHs took 3.4M BTC in profit

Long-term holders accelerated profit-taking after the FOMC-driven rally. Built-up gains prompted LTHs to lock profits as downward price action persisted. Checkonchain and Glassnode metrics show heightened LTH Sell Side Risk and unusually high realized-profit volumes for this cycle.

Source: Checkonchain

LTH Sell Side Risk climbed to 0.0017, signaling increased selling intent among long-term wallets. High realized-profit readings historically align with mid-to-late bull-cycle rotations, where LTHs pass coins to newer entrants.

Source: Glassnode

LTH dominance fades — what does the RHODL ratio show?

The RHODL Ratio has declined, indicating LTHs are reducing their share of on-chain realized value. Historically, this shift marks capital rotation toward short-term holders and can precede consolidation or correction phases typical of late-cycle markets.

Source: Checkonchain

ETF demand collapses — how severe is the drop?

U.S. spot ETF flows are the other major factor. Glassnode data shows 7D-SMA ETF netflows collapsing from ~2.6k BTC/day to nearly zero and daily netflows turning negative. This shift removes a structural buyer and amplifies the impact of LTH selling.

Source: Glassnode

What next for BTC?

COINOTAG analysis: persistent LTH profit-taking combined with ETF outflows increases the probability of short-term downside to the $107k area. A healthy rebound requires short-term holders and spot buyers to absorb recent supply.

If absorption occurs, BTC could re-test STH cost-basis resistance near $111k. Monitor ETF netflows, LTH realized-profit momentum, and RHODL shifts for early signal changes.

Key Takeaways

• LTH profit-taking: Long-term holders realized ~3.4M BTC this cycle, increasing sell-side risk.
• ETF flows: U.S. spot ETF netflows collapsed from ~2.6k BTC/day to near-zero and turned negative daily.
• Rebound scenario: Short-term holder absorption could push BTC back toward the STH cost basis (~$111k); failure to absorb risks a slide to ~$107k.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s recent weakness is driven by a confluence of large-scale LTH profit realization and evaporating institutional demand via ETFs. Monitoring on-chain metrics (Glassnode, Checkonchain), ETF netflows, and RHODL movement will be critical for anticipating whether BTC finds support or extends the correction. COINOTAG will continue to track developments and update analysis.

Frequently Asked Questions

What indicators show LTHs are selling?

Indicators include rising LTH realized profit, increasing Sell Side Risk, and a falling RHODL ratio. These on-chain metrics point to active profit-taking rather than dormancy among long-term holders.

How do ETF netflows affect Bitcoin price?

ETF netflows represent institutional buying or selling demand; positive sustained inflows support price appreciation, while a collapse or net outflows remove a structural buyer and can accelerate downside momentum.

Key Takeaways

• Active LTH selling: Robust realized profits suggest LTHs are taking gains, raising supply pressure.
• ETF weakness: U.S. spot ETF netflows have fallen sharply, reducing institutional support.
• Watch levels: Support near $107k and resistance near $111k are critical; monitor on-chain flows and RHODL for directional clues.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s near-term path will be determined by whether short-term buyers can absorb the LTH-driven supply amid weak ETF demand. COINOTAG will continue to monitor Glassnode and Checkonchain metrics and update readers on critical shifts. Stay alert to netflow and realized-profit indicators for early signs of stabilization.