Bitcoin May Face Sideways Trading Amid Moderate Long-Term Holder Selling and Low Market Momentum

• Bitcoin’s recent price action suggests a cautious market as it oscillates between $100k and $107k, with long-term holders starting to realize profits amid subdued momentum.

• The lack of a strong catalyst has kept Bitcoin range-bound, raising concerns about potential short-term corrections despite moderate selling from long-term holders.

• According to COINOTAG sources, the Long-Term Holder Binary Coin-Days Destroyed Z-Score rising above 5 signals early signs of distribution, hinting at possible market shifts ahead.

Bitcoin remains range-bound between $104k and $107k as long-term holders sell profits amid low volatility, signaling potential short-term correction risks.

Long-Term Holders Begin Profit-Taking Amid Price Consolidation

After retesting the critical $100k support level, Bitcoin rebounded to approximately $104.9k, re-entering a prolonged consolidation phase. This price action has placed many long-term holders (LTHs) back in profitable territory, prompting a wave of cautious selling. Data from Glassnode reveals that the HODLer Net Position Change is currently negative at -14.2K BTC, indicating that LTHs are offloading more coins than they accumulate. This moderate selling pressure reflects a strategic approach by holders to secure gains, especially in an environment lacking strong bullish catalysts. The movement of older coins at this juncture is significant, as it often precedes shifts in market sentiment.

Source: Glassnode

Market Momentum Stalls Due to Lack of External Catalysts

Investor enthusiasm remains muted as Bitcoin struggles to break above the $107k resistance zone. The absence of fresh momentum buyers and external market drivers has contributed to this stagnation. The 30-Day Volatility Index for Bitcoin has fallen below 1, signaling an unusually low volatility period and a compressed market state. Such conditions typically indicate that traders are awaiting a definitive catalyst before committing capital, resulting in a narrow trading range. Historically, these low-volatility phases precede significant price movements, either upward or downward, with the magnitude often proportional to the duration of the compression.

Source: Axel Adler/CryptoQuant

Signs of Early Distribution Among Long-Term Holders

Emerging data suggests that Bitcoin may be entering an early distribution phase. The Long-Term Holder Binary Coin-Days Destroyed (CDD) Z-Score has surpassed 5, a threshold often associated with increased spending from long-term holders. While current LTH spending remains moderate, this metric indicates a growing willingness to liquidate holdings, potentially signaling a shift in market dynamics. Should this trend continue without a corresponding bullish catalyst, the risk of a short-term correction intensifies. Support at $100,413 is critical; a breach could open the door to a decline toward the $97k level. Meanwhile, short-term holders (STHs) have shown limited selling activity, maintaining a cautious stance as Bitcoin trades below the $107k resistance.

Source: CheckOnChain

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s current trading range between $104k and $107k reflects a market in cautious equilibrium, with long-term holders beginning to take profits amid subdued volatility and limited external catalysts. The rise in Long-Term Holder CDD Z-Score suggests early distribution phases, which, combined with low momentum, could increase the likelihood of a short-term correction if key support levels fail to hold. Investors should monitor these metrics closely and remain vigilant for potential breakout signals. For now, Bitcoin appears poised to continue its sideways movement until a definitive market catalyst emerges.