BTC January 15, 2026: Critical Resistance Test in Strong Uptrend

Bitcoin continues to stay on investors' radars by exhibiting a strong upward trend around the 96,800 dollar level. Although RSI above 70 signals overbought conditions, the positive MACD histogram and daily uptrend are fueling the market with upward momentum. However, the critical resistance around 97,500 dollars puts the risk of a potential pullback on the table – whether this level is breached or not could determine the fate of the coming week.

Market Outlook and Current Situation

The Bitcoin market, as of January 15, 2026, is moving within a clear uptrend on the daily chart. The current price is positioned at the 96,808.97 dollar level, with a 1.45% increase recorded in the last 24 hours. The daily trading range was between 94,559.28 dollars and 97,924.49 dollars, and volume held at a healthy level of 29.11 billion dollars. These figures indicate that buyers are still maintaining dominance, as the increase in volume supports the trend momentum.

When examined in a multi-timeframe (MTF) context, a total of 12 strong levels were identified across the 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 3 supports and 2 resistances on 1D, 2 supports and 2 resistances on 3D, and 3 supports and 3 resistance confluences on 1W. These confluences show that the market is in a mature consolidation phase and carries significant breakout potential. BTC, trading above the short-term EMA20 (91,448.45 dollars), is maintaining short-term bullish signals, while the overall market sentiment is balanced between institutional inflows and macroeconomic uncertainties. You can review more detailed spot data on the BTC Spot Analysis page.

Despite a lack of major news flow recently, Bitcoin's hold around the 96,000 dollar band is reinforcing investor confidence. Historically, consolidations at similar RSI levels have led to either parabolic rallies or corrections. The current position is a continuation of the late 2025 rally and carries potential to lift the altcoin market as well.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Support Zones

Support zones stand out as critical buffers in potential pullbacks. The strongest support is at the 90,982.34 dollar level (score: 69/100), which also aligns with a confluence Fibonacci retracement on the 1W chart. One level below is 95,505.12 dollars (score: 62/100) and 93,617.75 dollars (score: 62/100). These supports are regions that have successfully survived low-volume tests in recent weeks, with the 24-hour low around 94,500 dollars proving their strength. If the price dips below 95,000 dollars, 93,600 dollars could become a quick test zone, but MTF confluences make it strong.

These supports hold significant historical importance: 90,982 dollars aligns with the swing low from the November 2025 rally and is a high-density region in the volume profile. Investors should use these levels in stop-loss strategies while not overlooking a hold scenario supported by volume increases.

Resistance Barriers

Resistances, meanwhile, are the biggest obstacles to the upside. Immediately above, 97,484.23 dollars (score: 82/100) forms a strong barrier – the 24-hour high of 97,924 dollars was rejected around this level. Further up lie 102,863.00 dollars (score: 60/100) and Supertrend resistance at 104,025.40 dollars. These resistances are reinforced by overlapping pivot points on the 1D and 3D charts and will require high volume for a breakout.

Breaking 97,500 dollars could carry short-term bulls to 102,000 dollars, but the current Supertrend bearish signal emphasizes the difficulty here. Looking at historical data, similar resistance tests have resulted in breakouts 60% of the time, with pullbacks of 5-10% in the remaining cases. Follow leveraged positions in the futures market on the BTC Futures Analysis page.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

Momentum indicators are mixed but generally signaling in favor of bulls. RSI at 70.41 is in overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of a short-term correction – however, there is no divergence on the 14-day RSI, meaning trend strength remains solid. Positive histogram expansion on MACD confirms upward momentum; the MACD line holding above the signal line lights the green for potential new highs.

Staying above EMA20 (91,448.45 dollars) keeps the short-term trend bullish, but the bearish Supertrend serves as a long-term warning. BTC, remaining within the uptrend channel on the 1W chart, is approaching the upper channel band (around 105,000 dollars). Volume oscillators are also supportive: OBV is rising, CMF is positive. This combination indicates medium-high trend strength, though the RSI overbought condition puts a potential decline to 65 on the table.

When integrated with MTF analysis, the 3D RSI at 62 being neutral balances the overall picture. While the indicators support the bull scenario, the bearish Supertrend divergence should be watched carefully – it recalls 2024-like correction patterns.

Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook

The risk/reward ratio looks attractive when calculated from current levels. Bullish target at 115,000 dollars (approximately 18.8% gain), bearish target at 80,000 dollars (17.3% loss). This offers a profile close to 1:1 R/R, but confluence-supported breakouts could push it to 1:2. In the positive scenario, a 97,500 breakout leads to the 102,000-104,000 band, then to 115,000; volume increase is essential.

On the negative side, an RSI correction could test 95,000-93,600, with a breakdown to 90,982. Risks include macro factors (Fed rate decisions) and liquidity squeezes. The overall outlook is bullish, but volatility is high: an upside breakout is likely after short-term consolidation, though support loss could trigger aggressive selling. Investors should size positions by cross-referencing BTC Spot Analysis and futures data.

The long-term trend is up, but short-term risks must be managed carefully. The market says the big picture favors bulls, but discipline is essential.