Bitcoin Battles 'Collapsing' Bond Markets as Week Starts With Trip to $76,500

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week under pressure as support levels fade and macro gloom intensifies.

Key points:

• Bitcoin falls below a key 21-week trend line after the weekly close, but hopes of a “bear trap” rebound remain.
• US-Iran war rhetoric continues to push oil higher, pressuring crypto markets.
• Those tensions could still be countered by strong PMI and Nvidia earnings data in the coming days.
• Bitcoin whales are acting as if the bottom is already in, per new analysis.
• Despite this, a surge in exchange inflows from a key investor cohort raises alarm over "capitulation."  

BTC price analysis sees relief bounce after sub-$77,000 dip

Bitcoin felt the pressure as the new weekly candle began, dropping to $76,500 — its lowest levels since May 1, per data from TradingView.

After several support retests, BTC/USD began to fall through recently recovered ground, which included the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $78,660.

BTC/USD one-day chart with 21-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

With it, price fell back below the bull market support band.

“Another weekly close at it for now, but to confirm a proper breakout you'd need to see a bounce now,” trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in X analysis before the trip toward month-to-date lows. 

“If this ends up falling back below that $75K-$76K area and closes there on the weekly, then this was just a big deviation/dead cat bounce in my eyes.”

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

The downside cost BTC long positions, with cross-crypto long liquidations for the 24 hours to the time of writing passing $670 million.

Data from CoinGlass also shows potential liquidations building either side of spot price, providing fuel for liquidity grabs both up and down.

BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

Commenting, trading account Cryptic Trades saw a bounce coming next due to the magnitude of liquidated longs.

“$BTC has just tapped into the prior Breakout Zone at $75K-$76K,” it told X followers. 

“Expecting a bounce here, as the longs I covered in my prior alert also got flushed.”

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Cryptic Trades/X

At the weekend, Cryptic Trades suggested that any downmove would have the markings of a classic “bear trap,” given rising open interest and negative funding rates.

“This shows us that bears are DOUBLING DOWN right now and betting on a breakdown,” it wrote. 

“It also shows that even though the market structure remains intact, bears are shorting as if a breakdown already happened. That’s generally how bear-traps are formed.”

US bond markets "collapsing in real time"

While light on US macro data, the coming week is already shaping up to be a tricky one for crypto traders.

Tensions over the US-Iran war are returning, with the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz oil route fully opening still absent.

In a post on Truth Social over the weekend, US President Donald Trump wrote that the “clock is ticking” for Iran, without giving specific details.

Additional reports claimed that Trump was convening a security meeting to discuss “military options in Iran,” per trading resource The Kobeissi Letter.

Oil futures reacted sharply at the weekly open, with WTI crude reaching near two-week highs of $104.45.

“The impact on energy prices from the war in the Middle East is pushing inflation to its highest level in years,” analytics resource Mosaic Asset Company commented in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic.

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Like others, Mosaic tied high oil prices to surging US inflation prints.

“While a spike in energy prices are helping drive inflation higher, the most recent reports continue a trend of growing price pressures,” it continued.

US bond markets, meanwhile, continue to sum up the about-turn in market sentiment, as “unsustainable” yield growth wipes out the odds of interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

“On Friday, the 30-year Treasury yield jumped above the 5% level which is the high tested several times over the past couple years. A sustained breakout could have serious implications at a time when federal debt and deficit spending is surging,” Mosaic warned.

US 30-year treasury yield chart. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

Kobeissi described the US bond market as “collapsing in real time.”

“And, in a sudden turn of events, the odds of rate cuts have collapsed to 2% this year and US inflation is nearing 4%+,” it noted on X.

PMI, Nvidia earnings give crypto bulls hope

Amid the chaos, a silver lining could come in the form of manufacturing data.

The latest S&P Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report, due out on Thursday, should ideally continue a breakout that began earlier in 2026.

Bitcoin and risk assets reacted positively to the development, which ended several years of PMI contraction.

Global PMI versus GDP data (screenshot). Source: S&P Global

Major tech earnings are also lining up to potentially offer markets a boost in the event that they surpass expectations. Nvidia will report on Wednesday — something that Kobeissi even calls the “biggest earnings event of the quarter.”

Commenting on the outlook for market volatility, independent macro and market strategist Michael J. Kramer cautioned that bulls may ultimately suffer. 

“NVIDIA once again finds itself heavily overloaded with call positioning, and unless the stock sees a meaningful pullback ahead of earnings that helps reengage put demand, I think the most likely outcome is another post-earnings sell-off,” he wrote in an X thread on Sunday.

Kramer predicted a surge in implied volatility toward Friday’s options expiry event.

“So unless NVIDIA is able to truly blow traders away with its results, the stock likely faces the usual ‘sell-the-news’ reaction, or, as I like to call it, the mechanical unwind,” he reiterated.

Bitcoin whales brush off hawkish Fed signals

In its latest market overview, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant examined the relationship between Fed policy and the actions of Bitcoin whales.

These large-scale investors, often tied to “smart money” and a key yardstick for long-term market trajectory, could be signalling that the outlook is not as bad as sentiment shows.

“Tracking their moves offers us a backdoor view into how the biggest players are reading the room, which in turn helps us stress-test and refine our own market thesis,” contributor Joohyun Ryu wrote in a QuickTake blog post this week. 

“To cut straight to the chase, the good news is that whale wallet balances haven't shown any dramatic shifts.”

BTC holdings per address tier (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Analyzing whale holdings, Joohyun argued that despite the odds of rate cuts disappearing for both 2026 and 2027, there appears to be no real cause to reduce risk exposure. Some cohorts are even adding to their holdings.

“On top of that, the ultimate mega-whales—those holding over 10K—are finally seeing their bags recover to levels we haven’t seen since last year,” he continued. 

“Judging by these trends, it looks like the whales are betting that the market has officially bottomed out. That said, this isn't a full-blown buying frenzy just yet, so it’s still wise to proceed with caution.”

Traditionally, financial tightening and an inflationary environment pressure crypto prices — a phenomenon most recently seen during the 2022 bear market.

Long-term holders lose their nerve

For the time being, however, sell-side pressure remains a key threat to Bitcoin.

Related: Bitcoin price history suggests 77% odds of new all-time high within a year

Specifically, CryptoQuant notes a pronounced uptick in exchange inflows from wallets that bought BTC between six and 12 months ago.

“Bitcoin is not facing a simple short-term correction, but a structurally driven crisis fueled by cascading leverage liquidations and deep spot-market fear.,” contributor Easy OnChain warned. 

“On-chain data shows a clear ‘cascading dumping’ pattern, where capitulation from long-term holders triggers panic selling among short-term investors.”

Bitcoin exchange inflows data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

The former cohort, hodling for up to 12 months, has accounted for 10.54% of exchange inflows since May 14 — more than 10 times normal levels.

For CryptoQuant, this signals “large-scale capitulation.”

“Historically, this reflects investors locking in major losses and exiting the market, creating severe spot-market selling pressure,” Easy On Chain continued, noting contagion spreading to speculators. 

“The current decline is therefore an internally driven market crisis caused by derivative liquidations, large-scale long-term holder capitulation, and cascading panic from short-term participants,” it added. 

“Until this toxic supply is fully absorbed and sentiment stabilizes, a rapid V-shaped recovery remains unlikely.”