Bitcoin Holds Near $63K as CryptoQuant Eyes $53,600 Floor and Strategy Defends 32-BTC Sale

Bitcoin News

On-chain analysis points to a potential cycle bottom for Bitcoin near $53,600, a level that corresponds to the asset’s realized price — the average on-chain cost basis of all coins and a metric long treated as the market’s structural floor. Research published Wednesday notes that in every major bear market cycle, Bitcoin has bottomed at or marginally below this cost line before reversing. With spot buying described as “extremely exhausted,” analysts warn that a probe toward $53,600 remains possible, even as price has already rebounded from last week’s sub-$60,000 low.

Strategy chief executive Phong Le moved to calm investors after the company sold Bitcoin for the first time in three years. The firm, which holds more than 840,000 BTC, offloaded 32 coins between May 26 and May 31 for roughly $2.5 million at an average price of $77,135 — about 0.004% of its stack. Le framed the disposal as a deliberate “stress test” to validate internal processes and prepare for future tax-loss harvesting, not a retreat from its long-term thesis. He stressed the proceeds funded STRC perpetual preferred-stock distributions, not a cash shortfall.

A separate week-on-chain report titled “Finding a Floor” concluded that Bitcoin is deepening into a capitulation phase. The drop toward $60,000 triggered a sharp deleveraging wave that flushed speculative positions and reset leverage across the market. Yet spot demand has not followed: options markets remain defensive, implied volatility is elevated, and dealers are clustering positions near current price. The data provider classified the move as a late-stage correction in which Bitcoin is being “passively absorbed” rather than actively bid, signaling that a durable demand response associated with major lows has not yet materialized.

Demand metrics underline the fragility. Combined perpetual-futures and spot demand collapsed by roughly 652,000 BTC last week — the steepest weekly contraction since January 2022 — as the break below $60,000 forced long liquidations and accelerated spot selling. ETF demand has also reversed, with spot Bitcoin funds shedding the equivalent of 74,000 BTC over 30 days, the weakest reading since the products launched in January 2024. Rather than absorbing pressure, these vehicles are now adding supply as holders trim exposure, while annual apparent demand has turned negative for the first time since early 2024.

Strategy’s leadership pushed back on claims that the sale undermines co-founder Michael Saylor’s “Never Sell Bitcoin” mantra. Le disclosed that during the same window the company net-acquired roughly 1,500 BTC, leaving its overall position higher. He argued the firm answers to multiple stakeholders — common and preferred shareholders, creditors and Bitcoin investors — and will sell when doing so serves common shareholders. Le added that institutional holders appeared unbothered, attributing the loudest criticism to retail HODL advocates, and likened today’s roughly 75% drawdown to the conditions of the 2022 cycle.

Institutional appetite is cooling more broadly. The same research flagged declining institutional participation and a slowdown in corporate treasury accumulation, with overall risk appetite still subdued after one spot fund posted a single-day outflow of $733 million and Bitcoin briefly traded beneath $73,000. The macro backdrop adds pressure: U.S. May consumer prices rose 4.2% year over year, a three-year high, lifting market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of 2026 above 70% — a hawkish shift that typically strengthens the dollar and drains capital from non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $61,825 support at 76/100 (STRONG), driven by the confluence of Fibonacci 0.114, S1 and a high-volume node, with the deeper $59,131 shelf scored 74/100 via the Donchian lower band and swing low. To the upside, the engine grades $64,729 resistance at 71/100 — Fibonacci 0.236, R1 and the Ichimoku Tenkan — ahead of $62,884 at 65/100 from the prior-day high and point of control. RSI at 29 signals oversold conditions while MACD stays bearish. Derivatives show funding at 0.0064% and 66% of accounts long (ratio 1.94) atop $11.6B open interest — crowded positioning that risks a squeeze. With the Fear & Greed Index at 12 (Extreme Fear), a reclaim of $64,729 favors bulls; losing $61,825 invalidates the floor thesis and exposes $59,131.