Robinhood prediction markets are event-based contracts allowing users to bet on outcomes like sports events, with revenue surging 100% quarter-over-quarter to $20 million in Q3 2025, driven by professional sports seasons and partnerships like Kalshi.
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Prediction market revenue growth: Doubled to $20 million in Q3, outpacing transaction revenue’s 35% rise.
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Professional sports boost: Autumn seasons for NFL and basketball increase user engagement on platforms like Robinhood.
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Analyst forecast: Compass Point projects $50 million in Q4 revenue from full NFL season and expanded offerings.
Explore Robinhood prediction markets’ rapid growth in 2025, fueled by sports betting trends and crypto synergies. Discover how these markets drive revenue—stay ahead with expert insights on trading opportunities today.
What Are Robinhood Prediction Markets?
Robinhood prediction markets enable users to trade contracts on future event outcomes, such as election results or sports games, blending financial trading with speculative wagering. Launched through partnerships like Kalshi, these markets charge a minimal one-cent fee per trade while offering commission-free access to stocks and cryptocurrencies. In Q3 2025, they generated $20 million in revenue, highlighting their role in diversifying Robinhood’s income beyond traditional brokerage services.
How Do Professional Sports Influence Robinhood’s Prediction Market Growth?
Professional sports seasons, particularly in autumn for basketball and football, drive heightened user interest in prediction markets. According to analysts at Compass Point, an investment bank, revenue from these markets is expected to outpace transaction-based earnings due to seasonal gambling spikes. In the U.S., bettors increasingly turn to platforms like Robinhood for event contracts on NFL and college football games, launched in August 2025 via the Kalshi partnership. This integration parallels traditional sportsbooks but emphasizes economic, cultural, and technological predictions as well.
Compass Point’s Monday note details that prediction market revenue likely doubled quarter-over-quarter to $20 million for the period ending September 30, 2025, while overall transaction revenue rose 35%. Looking ahead, the firm anticipates $50 million in Q4 revenue, benefiting from a full NFL season. This growth aligns with broader trends where financial services and betting converge, as seen in recent moves by competitors like DraftKings acquiring prediction exchanges.
Robinhood’s model charges a one-cent fee on event contracts, providing a steady revenue stream without disrupting its commission-free ethos for core assets. Analysts maintain a “buy” rating on Robinhood stock, with a $161 price target, up from $105, potentially marking a new all-time high above $153. On Monday, shares climbed over 5% to nearly $146, per market data.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Revenue Impact Have Robinhood Prediction Markets Had in 2025?
Robinhood prediction markets contributed around $20 million in Q3 2025 revenue, a 100% increase from the prior quarter, surpassing the 35% growth in transaction revenue. This surge stems from expanded offerings in sports and events, positioning them as a key diversifier for the platform’s earnings ahead of November 5 earnings release.
Why Are Prediction Markets Gaining Popularity on Robinhood During Sports Seasons?
Prediction markets on Robinhood see a boom during sports seasons because users spend more time on betting activities, especially with NFL and basketball underway. The platform’s easy access to event contracts on games, combined with low fees, makes it a convenient alternative to traditional sportsbooks, appealing to both novice and experienced traders seeking quick insights into outcomes.
Key Takeaways
- Revenue Acceleration: Prediction markets doubled to $20 million in Q3 2025, signaling strong adoption amid seasonal sports trends.
- Strategic Partnerships: Collaboration with Kalshi enables NFL and college football betting, broadening appeal beyond finance.
- Investment Outlook: Analysts at Compass Point recommend buying HOOD stock, targeting $161 amid prediction market expansion.
Conclusion
Robinhood prediction markets represent a dynamic evolution in financial services, with professional sports acting as a significant catalyst for growth in 2025. As revenue from these event contracts outstrips traditional sources, the platform’s integration of crypto trading fees and staking rewards further strengthens its position. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings for sustained momentum, while users explore these markets for informed, low-risk engagement in emerging trends.
Expanding on this foundation, Robinhood’s foray into prediction markets builds on last year’s U.S. breakthroughs, where platforms processed billions in wagers on major events like the presidential election. Following Kalshi’s legal win against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which cleared hurdles for election contracts after years of litigation, Robinhood entered the space with weeks to spare in the contest. The CFTC’s decision to drop its appeal in May paved the way for broader adoption.
Beyond sports, Robinhood’s offerings span economics, culture, and technology, attracting a diverse user base. The firm’s discussions with UK regulators, as reported by Bloomberg, suggest potential international rollout, enhancing global reach. This aligns with industry shifts, including DraftKings’ acquisition of Railbird, blurring lines between brokerage and betting firms.
For Q3 earnings on November 5, 2025, expectations include $1.2 billion in total revenue and $0.54 earnings per share. Compass Point highlights how prediction markets could eclipse transaction revenue growth, underscoring their strategic value. With shares nearing record highs, Robinhood’s pivot demonstrates resilience in a competitive landscape dominated by crypto and traditional finance.
Users benefit from the platform’s user-friendly interface, where prediction markets complement crypto staking rewards—yielding passive income on holdings like Ethereum or Solana. This synergy appeals to retail investors seeking diversified exposure without high barriers. As autumn sports intensify, participation is projected to peak, reinforcing prediction markets as a tailwind for Robinhood’s overall performance.
Expert analysis from Compass Point emphasizes the seasonal uplift: “Professional sports are emerging as a notable tailwind,” their note states, projecting robust Q4 figures. This fact-based optimism, devoid of speculation, reflects data-driven trends in user behavior and market dynamics. For those navigating crypto and betting intersections, Robinhood prediction markets offer a regulated, accessible entry point.
