DOT Market Commentary: February 1, 2026 Downtrend and Oversold RSI Signal

Polkadot (DOT) fell to 1.55 dollar levels, experiencing a sharp 7.62% drop in the last 24 hours. With the RSI indicator dropping to 27.56 and entering the oversold region, the asset holds potential for short-term reaction buying, although the dominant downtrend structure is shifting attention to critical supports.

Market Overview and Current Position

The DOT market, crushed under pressure from the broader crypto ecosystem, is attempting to consolidate around 1.55 dollars. The price, fluctuating in the 1.40-1.69 dollar range over the last 24 hours, is supported by a trading volume of 308.86 million dollars, but the declining volume reinforces the downtrend's strength. From a weekly perspective, the asset remains well below EMA20 (1.86 dollars), with the Supertrend indicator issuing a bearish signal and pointing to 1.92 dollars as resistance. This indicates that Polkadot is impacted by macro pressures despite its parachain ecosystem and development activities.

The bloodbath in the altcoin sector across the market caused DOT to stand out with its 7.62% drop. Bitcoin's parallel movement increases DOT's correlation, while the lower end of the 24-hour range at 1.40 dollars has become a threshold investors are watching with bated breath. The volume decline signals that buyers have not yet entered, conditioning any potential recovery on volume increase. In this context, reviewing the DOT spot analysis could be useful for evaluating detailed position opportunities.

In the long-term trend, the momentum from DOT's rally at the end of 2025 appears lost. However, fundamental factors like OpenGov updates in the ecosystem and the Polkadot 2.0 vision could trigger buying interest from bottom levels. Still, a cautious stance prevails in the current position.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Support Zones

The strongest support level stands out at 1.3990 dollars (score: 74/100); this level is reinforced by confluence on daily and weekly timeframes. If the price drops here, it could form a double bottom with additional support at 1.5370 dollars (score: 68/100) on the 3-day chart. These zones are part of 12 strong levels in multi-timeframe analysis, including 2 supports on 1D, 1 on 3D, and 3 on 1W. A breakdown could open the path to bearish targets.

Testing these supports could trigger reaction buys with volume increase. Historically, DOT has shown strong rebounds from these levels; for example, rapid recoveries have been observed in similar oversold conditions. Investors can use these zones as stop-loss in leveraged strategies via DOT futures.

Resistance Barriers

The first short-term resistance is positioned at 1.6423 dollars (score: 63/100); this barrier, due to its proximity to EMA20, could sustain bearish momentum. The upper resistance is at 1.8557 dollars (score: 61/100), supported by confluence from 6 resistances on 3D and 1W timeframes. The Supertrend's 1.92 dollar resistance preserves the overall bearish structure, requiring strong volume and positive divergence to break these levels.

The strength of the resistances signals continuation of the downtrend. Even if the price tests 1.64 dollars, short squeeze risk may rise, but the overall structure favors sellers. Multi-timeframe confluence emphasizes the solidity of these barriers.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

RSI at 27.56 is in the oversold region (below 30), signaling potential divergence and a reaction rally. However, the MACD histogram is negative with a bearish crossover persisting, confirming weak momentum. In the EMA hierarchy, the price remaining below EMA20 (1.86) keeps the short-term trend bearish; EMA50 and EMA200 form resistance higher up.

While Supertrend gives a bearish signal, trend strength can be confirmed with the ADX indicator (if above 25). The falling wedge formation on the daily chart holds bullish breakout potential, but a volume-less downtrend dominates. RSI divergence is starting to be observed on the 4-hour chart; this could signal short-term buyer entry. Overall, momentum is weak but oversold conditions offer reversal hope.

Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook

In the bullish scenario, the 2.2612 dollar target (score: 33) is possible with a strong rebound from supports; the risk/reward ratio is attractive, though probability is low. On the bearish side, a deep drop to 0.8186 dollars (score: 22) could be triggered, aligning with the current trend. The overall outlook is bearish; support breakdowns could create liquidity hunts. For a positive scenario, RSI rising to 50 and MACD positive crossover are required.

Risk management is critical: Volatility is high, and rising BTC dominance in altcoins could pressure DOT. In the short term, the 1.40 dollar defense should be monitored; a breakdown could bring aggressive selling. Long-term, the Polkadot ecosystem is strong but macro risks are forefront. A balanced portfolio and stop-loss usage are recommended; always do your own research.

Bitcoin Correlation

DOT shows high correlation with BTC (typically 0.85+), impacted more severely by Bitcoin's 6.32% drop to 78,640 dollars. With BTC Supertrend issuing a bearish signal, the altcoin sector is losing extra blood. BTC supports at 78,507 - 75,760 - 64,655 dollars are critical; holding here could give DOT breathing room. Resistances at 80,357 - 83,160 - 86,776 dollars mean DOT could recover if BTC hits them. Rising dominance pulls DOT down; BTC's downtrend dominates the DOT outlook.