Ethereum (ETH) ETF Approval Possibility Skyrockets: Insight from Bloomberg ETF Analyst

• As the deadline for the decision on Ethereum Spot ETFs approaches, intriguing developments continue to unfold.
• The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to reject applications that will determine the fate of Ethereum spot ETFs on May 23.
• Following the removal of the staking feature in Ark Invest’s application yesterday, the probability of ETH Spot ETFs being approved suddenly rose above 50% in some prediction markets.

This article explores the latest developments surrounding the approval of Ethereum Spot ETFs, including the SEC’s expected decision, potential issuer responses, and the impact of upcoming U.S. elections.

SEC’s Expected Decision on Ethereum Spot ETFs

The SEC is expected to reject applications for Ethereum spot ETFs due to a significant lack of interaction with potential issuers and Ethereum’s uncertain regulatory status. This has led analysts to predict a negative outcome. The SEC’s recent investigation into the Ethereum Foundation further complicates matters. As a result, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that spot Ethereum ETFs may not be approved until the end of 2025.

Potential Issuer Responses to Rejection

If faced with rejection, potential ETF issuers like BlackRock, Fidelity, or Ark Invest have two options: follow Grayscale’s example and sue the SEC or reapply at a later date. The upcoming U.S. elections could significantly affect the future of Ethereum ETFs. A leadership change could occur at the SEC if former President Donald Trump wins a second term. A new president could adopt a more crypto-friendly stance than current President Gary Gensler.

Impact of Upcoming U.S. Elections

The U.S. presidential elections in November could potentially resolve this issue. With Trump leading in some polls, the likelihood of a new SEC chairman being appointed is higher than previously estimated. Balchunas states, “Trump doesn’t necessarily have to be pro-crypto. Remember, the previous SEC chairman Jay Clayton also didn’t allow the ETF. So he won’t say ‘let’s go crazy’. But it will probably be better for crypto and spot ETFs.”

Conclusion

In conclusion, the future of Ethereum Spot ETFs remains uncertain, with the SEC’s decision and potential issuer responses hanging in the balance. The upcoming U.S. elections could bring about changes that might influence the approval process. However, as things stand, it seems likely that the wait for approval could extend until the end of 2025.