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Ethereum’s recent two-week death cross signals potential downside risks, echoing a bearish pattern last seen in 2022 that led to a significant price drop.
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Despite technical challenges, strong network activity and substantial fund inflows suggest underlying bullish momentum for ETH.
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According to COINOTAG, “The combination of technical indicators and robust on-chain metrics creates a complex outlook for Ethereum, balancing caution with optimism.”
Ethereum’s two-week death cross raises concerns of a price drop, but strong network growth and fund inflows highlight potential bullish recovery for ETH.
Ethereum’s Two-Week Death Cross: A Technical Warning Signal
Ethereum (ETH) has recently experienced its first two-week death cross since the 2022 bear market, a technical event where the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) crosses below the 50-period EMA. This crossover historically signals bearish momentum, as seen in mid-2022 when ETH’s price declined by approximately 40%. The current chart pattern mirrors that setup, with ETH struggling to break above these key moving averages, indicating persistent selling pressure. Traders should closely monitor these EMAs as continued resistance could push prices toward critical support levels near $1,835, derived from Fibonacci retracement zones established during the 2021-2022 correction.
Historical Context and Price Implications of the Death Cross
The death cross is not merely a fleeting technical indicator but often reflects deeper market sentiment shifts. In Ethereum’s case, the 2022 death cross followed a strong local top and a prolonged consolidation phase characterized by lower highs and increased volatility. The current market exhibits similar traits, suggesting that investors remain cautious. However, the repeated tests of the 20- and 50-period EMAs as resistance also highlight potential areas where bullish momentum could re-emerge if ETH manages to reclaim these levels decisively. This dynamic interplay between support and resistance zones is critical for forecasting ETH’s near-term trajectory.
Robust Ethereum Network Activity Bolsters Bullish Case
Contrasting the bearish technical signals, Ethereum’s network fundamentals remain strong. On June 24, the network processed 1.45 million successful transactions—the highest daily volume since January 2024—indicating sustained demand from decentralized applications (DApps), decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, and layer-2 solutions. This uptick in on-chain activity reflects growing user engagement and utility, which are essential drivers of long-term value. Additionally, Ether funds have seen their largest inflows since 2021, with $2.43 billion netted in 2025 alone, managing assets totaling $14.29 billion. These inflows suggest renewed institutional interest, which could provide a stabilizing force amid technical uncertainties.
Institutional Interest and Volume Trends Supporting ETH’s Outlook
Volume analysis reveals that ETH’s recent price increases have been accompanied by the strongest trading volumes since the bear market recovery phase of mid-2022. High volume during upward price movements typically signals conviction among market participants, enhancing the probability of sustained rallies. Furthermore, the significant inflows into Ether funds underscore growing confidence from institutional investors, who often act as market stabilizers. This combination of volume and fund flow data provides a nuanced perspective that tempers the bearish implications of the death cross, suggesting that Ethereum’s price action could be poised for a rebound if key resistance levels are overcome.
Conclusion
Ethereum’s two-week death cross highlights elevated downside risks reminiscent of the 2022 bear market, with potential price declines toward $1,835 if resistance at key EMAs persists. However, strong network usage, robust transaction volumes, and substantial institutional fund inflows present a compelling counterbalance, indicating underlying bullish potential. Investors should watch for a decisive break above the 20- and 50-period EMAs as a critical signal for renewed upward momentum. Balancing technical caution with fundamental optimism will be essential for navigating Ethereum’s evolving market landscape.
