EU Wheat Crop Forecast for 2024/25 Hits 4-Year Low, Stockpiles Expected to Rise

• The European Commission has maintained its forecast for the EU’s main wheat crop in 2024/25 at a four-year low.
• However, the Commission has raised its stocks outlook due to higher than expected supplies left over from this season.
• EU soft wheat production is pegged at 120.2 million metric tons, 4% below this season’s level.

European Commission Holds Wheat Crop Forecast at Four-Year Low, Raises Stocks Outlook

EU Wheat Production Forecast Unchanged

The European Commission has kept its forecast for the EU’s usable production of common wheat, or soft wheat, in 2024/25 unchanged at 120.2 million metric tons. This figure is 4% below the current season’s level and marks the smallest output since the 2020/21 season, which was adversely affected by heavy rain.

Increased Stocks Outlook

Despite the unchanged production forecast, the Commission has increased its forecast for EU soft wheat stocks at the end of 2024/25 to 13.5 million tons, up from 12.2 million tons last month. This adjustment is due to a higher projection of supplies remaining from this season. Soft wheat stocks at the end of the current 2023/24 season are now expected to reach 21.4 million tons, compared to the 20.4 million tons forecast last month. This revision reflects an upward adjustment in expected EU imports for 2023/24, now seen at 9.5 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 7.5 million tons.

Impact of Ukrainian Grain Influx

The influx of Ukrainian grain has been a significant factor in the EU’s wheat market. Expected soft wheat imports for 2024/25 have been revised up by 0.5 million tons but are still projected to be well below this year’s level at 5.0 million tons. The increased imports have outweighed upward adjustments to soft wheat export forecasts, with the Commission raising its export outlook by 0.5 million tons to 31.5 million for 2023/24 and by 0.1 million to 31.1 million for 2024/25.

Other Cereal and Oilseed Forecasts

In other cereals, the Commission has increased its forecast for 2024/25 usable barley production in the EU to 53.9 million tons from 53.6 million tons last month. However, it has trimmed its EU maize crop forecast to 68.6 million tons from 69 million tons. In the oilseeds sector, projected EU rapeseed production for 2024/25 has been cut to 19.1 million tons from 19.4 million tons previously.

Conclusion

The European Commission’s latest forecasts highlight a challenging outlook for the EU’s wheat production, with the 2024/25 crop expected to be the smallest in four years. However, the increased stocks outlook provides some relief, driven by higher than expected supplies from the current season. The influx of Ukrainian grain continues to impact the EU market, influencing both import and export projections. As the season progresses, market participants will closely monitor these developments to gauge their impact on the broader agricultural landscape.