Fed: ChatGPT Reduced Programmer Employment by 50%

The Federal Reserve's new research has put a concrete figure on the slowdown that developers have been feeling for two years. After ChatGPT's launch in November 2022, growth in programmer employment in the US shrank by about 50%. Previously, jobs in this field were expanding at a 5% annual pace, well ahead of the general labor market. Growth in programmer-intensive sectors like IT services and software development has come to a complete halt. Researchers emphasize that artificial intelligence has dealt a direct blow specific to the profession. This effect is explained by the proliferation of large language models (LLM) that boost coding efficiency.

Fed Research's Counterfactual Analysis

In 2022, interest rate hikes, the end of the post-pandemic digital boom, and the crypto crash shook the tech sector; critics attributed the slowdown to these factors. Leland D. Crane and Paul E. Soto constructed a counterfactual scenario keeping industry shares constant to isolate these effects and found that programmer employment contracted by 3% per year. No similar decline was observed in occupations not exposed to AI. Spread over three years, the difference amounts to about 500,000 jobs, but the authors describe it not as direct losses but as missed expansion opportunities. The employment gap became evident 18 months after ChatGPT, in mid-2024; companies appear to have waited until they tested and trusted the capabilities of large language models.

Programmers Are the Most AI-Impacted Profession

Programmers stand out as the most AI-impacted profession in the country; Anthropic data confirms that coding, debugging, and software architecture account for one-third of conversations and half of enterprise traffic. Studies like the Harvard research show that as companies adopt generative AI, junior developer roles declined by 9-10% over six quarters, while seniors were unaffected. Figures like Dario Amodei say one-fifth of intern positions could disappear, potentially affecting the college premium, upward mobility, and income gaps. The Fed authors aren't sounding the doomsday trumpet; wages haven't fallen, job postings recovered and slightly rose in 2024. In the long term, AI-assisted programming could open new markets and increase total demand.

Impacts on Crypto Developers and the ALT Project

This slowdown is also hitting blockchain and crypto developers. In projects like the ALT detailed analysis, AI tools are speeding up coding, but junior roles are shrinking. AltLayer (ALT) is currently at $0.01, 24h -1.05%, RSI 54.43 (neutral), trend sideways but Supertrend giving a bearish signal. EMA 20: $0.0074.

ALT Support and Resistance Levels

• Supports: S1 $0.0073 (72/100 ⭐ Strong, -3.31%), S2 $0.0067 (65/100 ⭐ Strong, -11.26%)
• Resistances: R1 $0.0077 (71/100 ⭐ Strong, +1.99%), R2 $0.0101 (64/100 ⭐ Strong, +33.77%)

AI optimization could boost demand for ALT futures, transforming developer employment and creating new opportunities.