Is the Bitcoin Rally Speculative? CryptoQuant Warning

Bitcoin jumped from $66,000 to $79,000 in April, achieving a 20% rally. CryptoQuant's weekly report published on Thursday reveals that this rise lacks fundamentals. While perpetual futures demand hit records, the real buyers' spot accumulations remained negative throughout the entire month. The firm emphasizes that in the "visible demand" measurement, the 30-day on-chain spot buying activity never turned positive. This situation indicates the dominance of speculative positions and increases the fragility of prices.

The report explains that spot demand reflects real Bitcoin purchases, while futures represent leveraged bets. During the April rally, futures demand grew while spot visible demand contracted; this divergence was observed right at the edge of the 2022 bear market. At that time, similar dynamics led to a prolonged collapse resulting in a 70% value loss from Bitcoin's peak. CryptoQuant experts say the current pullback – such as the price dropping to $76,400 – confirms the typical outcome of such rallies. Market data shows that speculative bubbles are preparing to burst. According to current data, BTC price is at $76,537, RSI at 56.20 in a sideways trend but Supertrend giving a bearish signal.

Critical Support and Resistance Levels for BTC

• Support S1: 75.718$ (Strength: 85/100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐) - From BB Middle, SMA 20, EMA 100, -1.06% away.
• Support S2: 71.953$ (Strength: 77/100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐) - BB Lower, -5.98% away.
• Resistance R1: 79.423$ (Strength: 86/100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐) - Fibo 0.618, Donchian Upper, +3.78% away.
• Resistance R2: 77.117$ (Strength: 60/100 ⭐⭐⭐) - R1, Ichimoku, +0.77% away.

EMA 20: 75.556$. These levels reflect futures pressure.

What Does the BTC Spot and Futures Demand Divergence Mean?

CryptoQuant's Bull Score index fell from 50 to 40 in April, entering the bear region; this signals ongoing downside risk in the combination of on-chain and market indicators. The firm warns that the $79,000 peak cannot be sustainable without visible demand turning positive.

Frequently Asked Questions About BTC

Why is the Bitcoin rally fragile? Futures speculation dominates while spot purchases are negative; similarity to 2022.

How is BTC spot demand measured? With 30-day on-chain activity; if it doesn't turn positive, the rally is unsustainable.

What is the current BTC trend? Sideways, with bearish Supertrend making $75,700 support critical.