Is the BTC Rally Speculative? CryptoQuant Warning
BTC/USDT
$12,354,739,802.25
$76,669.14 / $75,323.65
Change: $1,345.49 (1.79%)
-0.0001%
Shorts pay
Contents
Bitcoin jumped from $66,000 to $79,000 in April, achieving a 20% rally. CryptoQuant's weekly report published on Thursday reveals that this rise lacks fundamentals. While perpetual futures demand hit records, real buyers' spot accumulations remained negative throughout the entire month. The firm emphasizes that in the "visible demand" measurement, 30-day on-chain spot buying activity never turned positive. This situation indicates the dominance of speculative positions and increases price fragility.
Bitcoin April Rally's Spot-Futures Divergence
The report explains that spot demand reflects real Bitcoin purchases, while futures represent leveraged bets. During the April rally, futures demand grew while spot visible demand contracted; this divergence was observed right at the edge of the 2022 bear market. At that time, similar dynamics led to a prolonged collapse that resulted in Bitcoin losing 70% of its value from its peak. CryptoQuant experts say the current pullback – such as the price dropping to $76,400 – confirms the typical outcome of such rallies. Market data shows that speculative bubbles are preparing to burst.
CryptoQuant Bull Score Index Decline
CryptoQuant's Bull Score index fell from 50 to 40 in April, entering bear territory; this signals ongoing downside risk in the combination of on-chain and market indicators. The firm warns that the $79,000 peak cannot be sustainable without visible demand turning positive. This index measures market health by integrating long-term holders' behavior, net flows on exchanges, and derivatives market leverage.
BTC Current Technical Analysis and Price Data
As of April 30, 2026, BTC price is at $76,262.91 USD, with a 24-hour change of +0.47%. RSI at 55.70 is in neutral territory, trend sideways but Supertrend giving bearish signal. EMA 20: $75,539.77 USD. Click for detailed BTC detailed analysis.
| Level | Price (USD) | Score | Distance | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 (Strong Support) | 75.696,76 | 86/100 ⭐ | -0,87% | BB Middle, SMA 20, Prev Day Close, EMA 100 |
| S2 (Strong Support) | 71.951,75 | 77/100 ⭐ | -5,77% | BB Lower |
| R1 (Strong Resistance) | 79.422,79 | 86/100 ⭐ | +4,01% | Fibo 0.618, Donchian Upper, Swing High |
| R2 (Resistance) | 77.544,00 | 64/100 ⭐ | +1,55% | R2, LVN 3 |
If S1 support breaks, a sharp drop to S2 is possible; R1 could test speculative rally. Consistent with BTC futures data.
2022 Similarity and Speculative Bubble Risks
In 2022, spot-futures divergence pulled BTC from $69,000 to $16,000 USD, triggering a liquidation cascade. Today, perpetual open interest record ($150 billion+) creates similar fragility. Experts view funding rates turning negative as a bear trap signal.
Strategic Recommendations for BTC Investors
- Monitor spot accumulation: Wait for positive signal.
- Set stop-loss below S1 ($75,700 USD).
- Avoid futures leverage; prefer spot BTC.
- If Bull Score drops below 20, reduce positions.
Despite cautious stances from data providers like CryptoQuant, users on Myriad prediction markets and platforms like Dastan remain optimistic short-term. However, on-chain metrics dominate.