- Polymarket traders have increased their bets that President Biden may drop out of the 2024 presidential race.
- This new forecast follows President Biden’s shaky first debate performance against Trump.
- Public opinion about Biden’s age and recent debate performance has been highly critical.
Traders speculate on President Biden’s potential withdrawal from the 2024 race amid critical public opinion and debate performance.
Biden’s Debate Performance Raises Concerns
The probability that President Joe Biden might withdraw his candidacy has surged on Polymarket, a decentralized blockchain betting platform. Initially pegged at 19%, traders now estimate a 46% chance that Biden will step down before the upcoming U.S. presidential election. This shift in sentiment occurred following his recent debate with former President Donald Trump.
President Biden faced significant scrutiny during the debate, with critics pointing to his age and performance as factors undermining his candidacy. Instances where Biden struggled with his sentences and appeared confused have only fueled these concerns.
Public Opinion and Polls Reflect Doubts
Recent polls conducted by CBS News and YouGov show that only 28% of registered voters support Biden, while a striking 72% oppose his reelection bid. This data reflects a broader sentiment that questions Biden’s capability to serve another term, given his age and debate performance.
Former President Trump capitalized on these weaknesses, maintaining a composed demeanor while critiquing Biden’s policies on immigration and foreign policy. Trump’s remarks, such as questioning Biden’s coherence on immigration points, have resonated with many voters.
Crypto’s Role in the Presidential Race
Polymarket traders recently speculated on a 61% chance that Trump would discuss Bitcoin or cryptocurrency during the debate, but the topic didn’t come up. Nonetheless, cryptocurrency has emerged as a noteworthy issue in the election.
Trump has become a vocal supporter of cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin. Last month, he endorsed crypto during an event at Mar-a-Lago, where he also promoted his Trump-themed NFTs. Trump has since begun accepting campaign donations in cryptocurrency and has advocated for increased Bitcoin production in the U.S.
Regulatory Landscape under Scrutiny
The contrasts between Trump and Biden on cryptocurrency are stark. Trump’s embrace of digital assets stands in opposition to Biden-appointed SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s regulatory approach. Gensler has faced significant backlash from the crypto community for his perceived litigious stance on regulation, a method many argue stifles innovation in the sector.
The broader crypto industry sees Gensler’s policies as obstructive, potentially hindering the U.S.’s competitive edge in the global digital currency arena.
Conclusion
As the 2024 presidential race progresses, President Biden’s debate performances and public opinion will be crucial in determining his viability as a candidate. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency’s role in the election highlights significant policy differences between Biden and Trump, with Trump clearly positioning himself as a pro-crypto candidate. The evolving landscape of both political sentiment and digital asset policy will be key areas to watch as the election date approaches.
